河南省降雪识别及气候变化下降雪量对气温和降水的响应

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.105

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

使用河南省119个国家气象站点近55年（1968—2022年）的气象资料，利用日天气现象对日降水相态进行标记，使用REOF（旋转经验正交展开）方法对降雪量标准化场进行分区，运用加入指数方程拟合的双温度阈值法，构建本地化分区域的降雪识别方法，通过降雪识别得到较为准确的降雪量后，量化气候变化背景下降雪量对气温和降水的响应。结果表明，加入指数方程拟合的双温度阈值法在河南省降雪识别中具有较高的精度，降雪识别指数方程可以较好地估算年降雪量，各区域相关系数均超过0.97，平均相对误差绝对值均小于2.7%。气温的上升对降雪量的减少呈正贡献，且作用强度由南向北逐渐转弱，降水的减少对降雪量的减少呈正贡献。在气候变暖背景下，1994年后气温的显著增加对降雪量的影响起主要作用，加之低温降水概率减小，使河南省降雪量整体呈减少趋势。

关键词: 双温度阈值法, 降雪识别, 指数方程, 气候变化

Abstract:

Based on the meteorological data of 119 national meteorological stations in Henan province in recent 55 years (1968-2022), the daily precipitation phase was labeled by daily weather phenomena, and the standardized snowfall fields were divided by the REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) method. A local regional snowfall identification method was established by using the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation. After obtaining more accurate snowfall amount through snowfall identification, the response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under the background of climate change was quantified. The results show that the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation has a high accuracy in snowfall identification in Henan province. The exponential equation can estimate the annual snowfall well. The correlation coefficient in each region is more than 0.97, and the absolute value of the average relative error is less than 2.7%. The increase of temperature contributed positively to the decrease of snowfall, and the effect intensity gradually weakened from south to north, and the decrease of precipitation contributed positively to the decrease of snowfall. Under the background of climate warming, the significant increase of temperature after 1994 played a major role in the influence of snowfall, and the probability of low temperature precipitation decreases, resulting in the overall decreasing trend of snowfall in Henan province.

Key words: Double temperature threshold method, Snowfall identification, Exponential equation, Climate change

张凡, 丁建芳, 杨敏, 彭冲. 河南省降雪识别及气候变化下降雪量对气温和降水的响应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(6): 714-722.

ZHANG Fan, DING Jian-Fang, YANG Min, PENG Chong. Snowfall identification and response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under climate change in Henan province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 714-722.

图/表 9

图1 河南省地形图及气象站点

Fig. 1 Topographic map and meteorological stations of Henan province

图2 河南省降雪量场分区及气象站点

Fig. 2 Snowfall field zoning and meteorological stations in Henan province

表1 河南省三区域双温度阈值

Table 1 Double temperature threshold in three regions of Henan province

图3 豫北区拟合图像

Fig. 3 Fitting image of northern Henan region

表2 河南省三区域指数方程参数值

Table 2 Parameter values of three regional exponential equations in Henan province

表3 河南省三区域降雪估算结果相关性

Table 3 Correlation of estimation effect in three regions of Henan province

图4 年平均气温突变检验(a) Mann-Kendall突变检验，(b) Pettitt突变检验和SNHT突变检验，(c)滑动t检验

Fig. 4 Annual mean temperature mutation test. (a) Mann-Kendall mutation test, (b) Pettitt mutation test and SNHT mutation test, and (c) sliding t-test

表4 气温、降水对降雪量改变的贡献率和气候突变前后气温、降水、降雪变化

Table 4 Contributions of temperature and precipitation to changes in snowfall and changes of temperature, precipitation and snowfall before and after climate mutation

图5 气候突变前后豫北区(a)，豫东区(b)和豫南区(c)降水概率密度图

Fig. 5 Precipitation probability density map of northern (a), eastern (b) and southern (c) Henan region before and after climate mutation

参考文献 24

[1]	刘原峰, 朱国锋, 赵军, 等. 黄土高原区不同降水相态的时空变化[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36 (8): 1227-1233. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.08.014
	Liu Y F, Zhu G F, Zhao J, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of different precipitation type in the Loess Plateau area[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36 (8): 1227-1233 (in Chinese) doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.08.014
[2]	张庆云, 陶诗言, 彭京备. 我国灾害性天气气候事件成因机理的研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2008, 32 (4): 815-825.
	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Peng J B. The studies of meteorological disasters over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2008, 32 (4): 815-825 (in Chinese)
[3]	Martyn P C, Andrew G S, Andrew P B, et al. Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models[J]. Advances in Water Resources, 2005, 29 (8): 1209-1221 doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.10.001 URL
[4]	Box J E, Fettweis X, Stroeve J C, et al. Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers[J]. The Cryosphere, 2012, 6 (21): 821-839 doi: 10.5194/tc-6-821-2012 URL
[5]	翟亮, 郭淳薇, 马新成, 等. 北京2016年“11·20”初雪预报偏差分析[J]. 气象, 2018, 44 (1): 151-158.
	Zhai L, Guo C W, Ma X C, et al. Forecast deviation analysis of the first snow in Beijing on 20 November 2016[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2018, 44 (1): 151-158 (in Chinese)
[6]	中国气象局. 地面气象观测规范QX/T 52—2007: 降水观测[S/OL]. 2007 [2023-04-01]. https://www.mofile.net/item/5c3171f6b8c24d159a9113dc31e1e1e7.html.
	China Meteorological Administration. Specifications for surface meteorological observation QX/T 52—2007: measurement of precipitation[S/OL]. 2007 [2023-04-01]. https://www.mofile.net/item/5c3171f6b8c24d159a9113dc31e1e1e7.html (in Chinese)
[7]	陈双, 谌芸, 何立富, 等. 我国中东部平原地区临界气温条件下降水相态判别分析[J]. 气象, 2022, 45 (8): 1037-1051.
	Chen S, Chen Y, He L F, et al. Discrimination analysis of snow and rain occurring under critical temperature conditions in central and eastern China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2022, 45 (8): 1037-1051 (in Chinese)
[8]	Ryzhkov A V, Zrnic D S. Discrimination between rain and snow with a polarimetric radar[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1998, 37 (10): 1228-1240 doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1998)037<1228:DBRASW>2.0.CO;2 URL
[9]	Bocchieri J R. The objective use of upper air soundings to specify precipitation type[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1980, 108 (5): 596-603 doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<0596:TOUOUA>2.0.CO;2 URL
[10]	孙燕, 严文莲, 尹东屏, 等. 江苏冬季降水相态气候分布特征及预报方法探讨[J]. 气象科学, 2013, 33 (3): 325-332.
	Sun Y, Yan W L, Yin D P, et al. Climatic characteristics and forecast of precipitation phase in winter of Jiangsu[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2013, 33 (3): 325-332 (in Chinese)
[11]	李江波, 李根娥, 裴雨杰, 等. 一次春季强寒潮的降水相态变化分析[J]. 气象, 2009 (7): 87-94.
	Li J B, Li G E, Pei Y J, et al. Analysis on the phase transformation of precipitation during a strong cold wave happened in spring[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2009 (7): 87-94 (in Chinese)
[12]	王杰. 1961—2014年青藏高原降雪比例变化分析[D]. 兰州: 西北师范大学, 2017: 29-40.
	Wang J. Change of snowfall/precipitation ratio in the Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2014[D]. Lanzhou: Northwest Normal University, 2017: 29-40 (in Chinese)
[13]	张琳娜, 郭锐, 曾剑, 等. 北京地区冬季降水相态的识别判据研究[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32 (6): 1780-1786. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00147
	Zhang L N, Guo R, Zeng J, et al. Research on discrimination criterion of precipitation types in Beijing in winter[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32 (6): 1780-1786 (in Chinese) doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00147
[14]	Yang Z L. Validation of the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme with Russian snow cover and meteorological observational data[J]. Journal of Climate, 1997, 10 (2): 353-373 doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0353:VOTSSO>2.0.CO;2 URL
[15]	Chen R S, Lu S H, Kang E S, et al. A distributed water-heat coupled model for mountainous watershed of an inland river basin of Northwest China (I) model structure and equations[J]. Environmental Geology, 2007, 53 (6): 1299-1309 doi: 10.1007/s00254-007-0738-2 URL
[16]	王飞, 朱仲元, 郝祥云, 等. 锡林河流域降雪识别及演变趋势研究[J]. 高原气象, 2022 (4): 725-733.
	Wang F, Zhu Z Y, Hao X Y, et al. Snowfall identification and evolution trend in Xilin River basin[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 38 (4): 725-733 (in Chinese)
[17]	刘少华, 严登华, 王浩, 等. 怒江上游流域降雪识别及其演变趋势和原因分析[J]. 水利学报, 2018, 49 (2): 254-262.
	Liu S H, Yan D H, Wang H, et al. Separation of snowfall from precipitation and its evolution trend and reasons analysis in upper reaches of Nujiang River basin[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2018, 49 (2): 254-262 (in Chinese)
[18]	Liu S, Yan D, Qin T, et al. Precipitation phase separation schemes in the Naqu River basin, eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018, 131 (1-2): 399-411 doi: 10.1007/s00704-016-1967-7 URL
[19]	孙秀忠, 孙照渤, 罗勇. 1960—2005年东北地区降雪变化特征研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2010, 26 (1): 1-5.
	Sun X Z, Sun Z B, Luo Y, et al. Characteristics of snow fall from 1960 to 2005 in Northeast China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2010, 26 (1): 1-5 (in Chinese)
[20]	张志富, 希爽, 刘娜, 等. 1961—2012年中国降雪时空变化特征分析[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37 (9): 1765-1773.
	Zhang Z F, Xi S, Liu N, et al. Snowfall change characteristics in China from 1961 to 2012[J]. Resource Science, 2015, 37 (9): 1765-1773 (in Chinese)
[21]	刘燕, 叶萌. 基于REOF分析的广东前汛期降水趋势的区域特征[J]. 广东气象, 2007 (4): 11-14.
	Liu Y, Ye M. Regional characteristics of precipitation trend in pre flood season based on REOF analysis in Guangdong[J]. Guangdong Meteorology, 2007 (4): 11-14 (in Chinese)
[22]	陈豫英, 陈楠, 王式功, 等. 中蒙干旱半干旱区降水的时空变化特征(I): 年降水特征及5—9月降水的REOF分析[J]. 高原气象, 2010, 29 (1): 33-43.
	Chen Y Y, Chen N, Wang S G, et al. Temporal and spatial change features of precipitation over China-Mongolia arid-and semiarid-areas (I): annual rainfall feature and May-September one REOF analyses[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2010, 29 (1): 33-43 (in Chinese)
[23]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 115-133.
	Wei F Y. Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction techniques[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999: 115-133 (in Chinese)
[24]	朱坚, 张耀存, 黄丹青. 全球变暖情景下中国东部地区不同等级降水变化特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2009, 28 (4): 889-896.
	Zhu J, Zhang Y C, Huang D Q. Analysis of changes in different class precipitation over eastern China under global warming[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28 (4): 889-896 (in Chinese)