中国1960—2019年体感温度的时空变化及其风险分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.286

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 265-277.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.286

中国1960—2019年体感温度的时空变化及其风险分析

陈婷婷¹^,², 余文君¹^,²(), 李艳忠¹^,², 白鹏³, 星寅聪¹^,², 黄曼捷¹^,², 邵伟¹^,²

1 南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院，南京 210044
2 水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室，南京 210044
3 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;/中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室，北京 100101

收稿日期:2023-12-28 修回日期:2024-02-21 出版日期:2024-05-30 发布日期:2024-05-08
通讯作者: 余文君，女，讲师，wj.yu@nuist.edu.cn
作者简介:陈婷婷，女，本科生
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41901076);国家自然科学基金项目(41931180)

The spatiotemporal changes and risk analysis of apparent temperature in China from 1960 to 2019

CHEN Ting-Ting¹^,², YU Wen-Jun¹^,²(), LI Yan-Zhong¹^,², BAI Peng³, XING Yin-Cong¹^,², HUANG Man-Jie¹^,², SHAO Wei¹^,²

1 School of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2 Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210044, China
3 Key Laboratory of Terrestrial Water Cycle and Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2023-12-28 Revised:2024-02-21 Online:2024-05-30 Published:2024-05-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

体感温度（Apparent Temperature，AP）描述了人体实际感受到的温度。文中基于我国1960—2019年的空气温度、相对湿度和风速等气象要素数据，估算并分析了4个典型气候区（湿润区、过渡区、干旱区和青藏高原）AP的时空变化格局及其高温风险。结果发现：(1)在空间分布上，AP由东南沿海向西北内陆递减，平均AP值由湿润区（约为17.0℃）逐渐向干旱区（约为7.0℃）和青藏高原区（约为0.6℃）递减；(2)全国AP呈现显著上升的趋势，4个典型气候区的上升速率分别为0.29℃/(10 a)、0.27℃/(10 a)、0.15℃/(10 a)和0.13℃/(10 a)；(3)气温变化对AP的贡献率最高，约为92.4%，其次是风速及相对湿度，约为5.6%和2.0%；(4)典型气候区的高温风险天数变化呈现空间异质性，湿润区和青藏高原大部分地区均呈现显著增长趋势。

关键词: 体感温度（AP）, 时空变化, 中国气候区, 归因分析, 风险分析

Abstract:

Apparent temperature (AP) describes the actual temperature felt by the human body. Based on meteorological data such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from 1960 to 2019 in China, the spatiotemporal variation patterns and high temperature risks of AP were estimated and analyzed in four typical climate zones (humid zone, transitional zone, arid zone, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau). The results showed that: (1) In terms of spatial distribution, AP decreased from the southeast coastal area to the northwest inland area, and the average AP value gradually decreased from the humid area (about 17.0℃) to the arid area (about 7.0℃) and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area (about 0.6℃). (2) The national AP showed a significant upward trend, with the rates in four typical climate zones being 0.29℃/(10 a), 0.27℃/(10 a), 0.15℃/(10 a), and 0.13℃/(10 a), respectively. (3) The contribution rate of temperature changes to AP was the highest, about 92.4%, followed by wind speed and relative humidity, about 5.6% and 2.0% respectively. (4) 70% to 80% of humid areas are defined as risk areas, and the number of days with high temperatures is increasing year by year. The 1.2% regional risk increase in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau is significant (0.22 d/a). Drought and transitional zones account for 30% to 40% of risk areas, and the risk gradually increases. The variation of high temperature risk days in typical climate zones showed spatial heterogeneity, with significant growth trends observed in most areas of humid regions and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: Apparent temperature (AP), Spatial and temporal changes, China’s climate zone, Attribution analysis, Risk

陈婷婷, 余文君, 李艳忠, 白鹏, 星寅聪, 黄曼捷, 邵伟. 中国1960—2019年体感温度的时空变化及其风险分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(3): 265-277.

CHEN Ting-Ting, YU Wen-Jun, LI Yan-Zhong, BAI Peng, XING Yin-Cong, HUANG Man-Jie, SHAO Wei. The spatiotemporal changes and risk analysis of apparent temperature in China from 1960 to 2019[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(3): 265-277.

图/表 12

图1 研究区气象站点分布和高程（DEM）示意图注：本文图基于自然资源部地图技术审查中心标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2019）1822号的标准地图制作，底图无修改，下同。

Fig. 1 Distribution of the meteorological stations and DEM on the study region

图2 1960—2019年多年平均体感温度（AP）和平均气温（AT）的空间分布

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of annual mean Apparent Temperature (AP) and Air Temperature (AT) in 1960-2019

图3 1960—2019年多年平均AP与AT差值（ΔT）的空间分布

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of the annual mean difference between AP and AT (ΔT) in 1960-2019

图4 1960—2019年典型气候区ΔT在全年(a)、夏季(b)和冬季(c)的变化特征

Fig. 4 Variation curves of theΔT on the typical climate zones from 1960 to 2019

图5 1960—2019年体感温度和平均气温在不同季节上趋势值的空间分布注：“×”表示变化趋势显著（P<0.05），下同。

Fig. 5 The spatial distribution of AP and AT trends in different temporal scales from 1960 to 2019. (“×” represent where observed trends are significant (P<0.05))

图6 体感温度 (a)和平均气温 (b)在各典型气候区的变化趋势值

Fig. 6 Trends of AP (a) and AT (b) in the typical climatic zones

图7 1960—2019年体感温度与平均气温在不同季节上差值绝对值的趋势值空间分布

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of the difference between the trend change of AP and AT in different spatial scales from 1960 to 2019

图8 1960—2019年中国典型气候区域的高温风险面积占比(a)和天数(b)的时间变化

Fig. 8 The proportion of annual high temperature risk area (a) and temporal variation of days (b) in typical climate regions of China from 1960 to 2019

图9 1960—2019年中国高温风险天数变化趋势的空间分布注：白色区域表示并未出现高温风险地区。

Fig. 9 Spatial distribution of the trend of high temperature risk days in China from 1960 to 2019. (The white area indicates that there is no high temperature risk area)

图10 全国平均气温、相对湿度以及风速的时空变化特征

Fig. 10 Spatiotemporal variation of average air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed

图11 去趋势前后体感温度的变化特征注：AP代表去趋势前的体感温度值；APdeT、APdeRH、APdeU分别代表去除温度、相对湿度和风速年际变化趋势的体感温度值。

Fig. 11 The change characteristics of AP before and after detrending. (AP represents the apparent temperature value before detrending. APdeT, APdeRH, and APdeU represent the apparent temperature values calculated by detrending air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, respectively)

图12 平均气温、相对湿度和风速在不同季节上分别对AP相对贡献率的空间分布

Fig. 12 The spatial distribution of the relative contribution rates of the average air temperature (a-c), relative humidity (d-f), and wind speed (g-i) to AP in different timescales, respectively

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中国1960—2019年体感温度的时空变化及其风险分析

The spatiotemporal changes and risk analysis of apparent temperature in China from 1960 to 2019

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