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      氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2005, Vol. 01 ?? Issue (01): 10-15.

      ? 研究論文 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      后京都國際氣候協(xié)定的談判趨勢與對策思考

      潘家華   

      1. 中國社會科學院 可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究中心
      • 收稿日期:2005-04-19 修回日期:2005-04-30 出版日期:2005-05-31 發(fā)布日期:2005-05-31
      • 通訊作者: 潘家華

      Roadmap to Post-Kyoto Climate Agreements and Policy Choices by China

      1. 中國社會科學院 可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究中心
      • Received:2005-04-19 Revised:2005-04-30 Online:2005-05-31 Published:2005-05-31

      摘要: 國際氣候制度的談判錯綜復雜。然而,2012年以后國際氣候承諾的基礎,仍將取決于各國的政治意愿、經(jīng)濟利益和科學認知。談判的平臺不僅限于締約方會議,也可能是締約方會議體制外的雙邊、多邊乃至單邊形式,而且,協(xié)議內(nèi)容將涉及減排、適應、技術、低碳發(fā)展等,最終將可能形成在可持續(xù)發(fā)展框架下適應與減緩氣候變化的綜合性一攬子協(xié)議。中國在未來20 a或更長時間仍將處于快速工業(yè)化和城市化的進程,對協(xié)議內(nèi)容的選擇只能是弱化各種風險,規(guī)避剛性約束,需要積極參與國際規(guī)制的制定,保障并強化中國的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。

      關鍵詞: 后京都協(xié)議, 氣候談判, 對策思考

      Abstract: The negotiation of the international climate regimes is a highly complicated process. Nevertheless, the determinants for beyond 2012 commitments rely on the political will, economic interest and scientific knowledge of the global powers. The vehicles for post-Kyoto negotiations will be not only confined to the UNFCCC process, but bilateral, multilateral and even unilateral commitments outside the UNFCCC are also likely to take place. Furthermore, the contents of agreements will cover mitigation, adaptation, technologies, and low carbon development. In the end, it is possible that a basket of agreements will be concluded under the overall framework of sustainable development. In the next 20 years or so, China will be in the process of large-scale and rapid industrialization and urbanization. The choice by China for climate agreements will have to consider the reduction of possible risks, avoidance of inflexible restrictions, and active participation in the negotiation and making of international regimes, so as to safeguard and promote sustainable development in China.

      Key words: post-Kyoto agreements, climate negotiation, policy choices by China

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