Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2009, Vol. 5 ?? Issue (00): 54-59.

? Impacts and Adaptation ? 上一篇下一篇

Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

Liu Bo^{1, 2, 4}, Jiang Tong^{1, 2}, Ren Guoyu², Klaus Fraedrich³

1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany; 4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2009-10-30 發(fā)布日期:2009-10-30

Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

Liu Bo^{1, 2, 4}, Jiang Tong^{1, 2}, Ren Guoyu², Klaus Fraedrich³

1 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany; 4 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-10-30 Published:2009-10-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： Based on the projected runoff depth by ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model for the Yangtze River basin under SRES A2, A1B, B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2001-2050, the spatial and temporal patterns of future surface water resource in the Yangtze River basin were analyzed. The results show that the long-term average annual surface water resource volumes of the Yangtze River under the three scenarios are similar, while interannual fluctuations are complicated with different trends. The surface water resource declines gradually in fluctuations under the A2 scenario, shows no obvious trends under the A1B scenario, and displays a relatively significant increasing trend under the B1 scenario. Decadal variations of surface water resource are notable, showing an overall decline trend under all the three scenarios in 2001-2030, while an increasing trend to varying extent after the 2030s, especially in summer and winter. The projected future water resource volume in the Yangtze River basin overally remains at the current level, showing an evident spatial uneven feature.

關(guān)鍵詞: projection, climate change, surface water resource, greenhouse gas emission scenario

Abstract: Based on the projected runoff depth by ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model for the Yangtze River basin under SRES A2, A1B, B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2001-2050, the spatial and temporal patterns of future surface water resource in the Yangtze River basin were analyzed. The results show that the long-term average annual surface water resource volumes of the Yangtze River under the three scenarios are similar, while interannual fluctuations are complicated with different trends. The surface water resource declines gradually in fluctuations under the A2 scenario, shows no obvious trends under the A1B scenario, and displays a relatively significant increasing trend under the B1 scenario. Decadal variations of surface water resource are notable, showing an overall decline trend under all the three scenarios in 2001-2030, while an increasing trend to varying extent after the 2030s, especially in summer and winter. The projected future water resource volume in the Yangtze River basin overally remains at the current level, showing an evident spatial uneven feature.

Key words: projection, climate change, surface water resource, greenhouse gas emission scenario, the Yangtze River basin

Liu Bo;;;Jiang Tong;;Ren Guoyu;Klaus Fraedrich. Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050[J]. 氣候變化研究進展, 2009, 5(00): 54-59.

Liu Bo;;;Jiang Tong;;Ren Guoyu;Klaus Fraedrich. Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050[J]. Climate Change Research, 2009, 5(00): 54-59.

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Projected Surface Water Resource of the Yangtze River Basin Before 2050

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