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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2005, Vol. 01 ?? Issue (03): 106-110.

      ? 研究論文 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      新疆1960—1999年第一對流層頂高度變化及其突變分析

      張廣興,李娟,崔彩霞,辛渝   

      1. 新疆博州局 沙漠氣象研究所
      • 收稿日期:2005-08-01 修回日期:2005-08-29 出版日期:2005-09-30 發(fā)布日期:2005-09-30
      • 通訊作者: 張廣興

      Change Trend and Analysis of Abrupt Change for the First Tropopause Height over Xinjiang in 1960-1999

      1. 新疆博州局 沙漠氣象研究所
      • Received:2005-08-01 Revised:2005-08-29 Online:2005-09-30 Published:2005-09-30

      摘要: 采用1960-1999年新疆12個探空站逐日觀測資料,按氣候特點(diǎn)把新疆劃分為阿爾泰山、天山南坡、天山北坡和昆侖山4個區(qū)域進(jìn)行研究。分析了40 a來新疆第一對流層頂年平均高度變化空間分布差異,用Mann-Kendall法和移動t檢驗(yàn)法進(jìn)行了突變檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明:1960年以來,新疆第一對流層頂年平均高度總體為上升趨勢,期間經(jīng)歷了兩升兩降的變化,較為突出的是1987-1999年的明顯上升過程。年代際變化上,20世紀(jì)60年代到70年代初第一對流層頂高度有所下降,70、80和90年代的30 a則明顯上升,累計(jì)上升了百米之多。新疆阿爾泰山、天山南坡和北坡分別于1972、1973和1976年發(fā)生了均值突變,昆侖山未發(fā)生顯著氣候突變。盡管存在差異,但在80年代末期至1999年各地呈現(xiàn)的上升趨勢卻具一致性。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 第一對流層頂高度, 變化趨勢, 突變分析

      Abstract: On the basis of the daily radiosounding data collected from twelve stations in Xinjiang from 1960 to 1999, it was divided into four regions by climate features: the Altai Mountains, the northern and southern slopes of Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains. The change trend of average height and difference in the spatial distribution of the first tropopause for 40 years were analyzed, and the test of abrupt change was conducted by means of Mann-Kendall and running t-test. The results show that there was an increasing trend of average height for the first tropopause over Xinjiang as a whole during the period from 1987 to 1999 in particular. From the view of the interdecadal change, it obviously decreased from 1960s to early 1970s and then has gradually increased since 1970s.The running t-test shows that a remarkable mean change occurred in the Altai Mountains in 1972, the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains in 1976 and the northern one in 1979, but there was no abnormal change in the Kunlun Mountains. The average height obviously increased all over Xinjiang with the exception of Kunlun Mountains. Although there were all kinds of differences in various regions, the increasing trend was rather similar from the end of 1980s to 1999 over Xinjiang.

      Key words: the first tropopause height, change trend, analysis of abrupt change

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