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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展

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      中國試點(diǎn)ETS的碳減排效果評估——基于分省高耗能工業(yè)子行業(yè)數據的分析

      張海軍1,2,段茂盛1   

      1. 1 清華大學(xué)能源環(huán)境經(jīng)濟研究所,北京 100084;
        2 中核戰略規劃研究總院,北京 100048
      • 收稿日期:2020-10-19 修回日期:2020-12-27 出版日期:2021-09-09 發(fā)布日期:2021-09-09
      • 通訊作者: 段茂盛
      • 基金資助:
        國家社會(huì )科學(xué)基金重大項目;國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計劃課題;國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計劃課題

      Evaluation of the carbon emission reduction effect of China’s pilot ETSs: analysis based on the data of energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors by province

      ZHANG Hai-Jun1, 2, DUAN Mao-Sheng1   

      1. 1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
        2 China Institute of Nuclear Industry Strategy, Beijing 100048, China
      • Received:2020-10-19 Revised:2020-12-27 Online:2021-09-09 Published:2021-09-09

      摘要: 評估中國試點(diǎn)碳排放權交易體系(ETS)碳減排效果的現有研究普遍存在處理組樣本選取范圍明顯大于試點(diǎn)ETS實(shí)際覆蓋范圍的問(wèn)題。因此,文中對研究樣本進(jìn)行了更為嚴格的甄別:將2005—2017年各省的六大高耗能工業(yè)子行業(yè)中納入試點(diǎn)企業(yè)的體量占相應子行業(yè)體量60%及以上的工業(yè)子行業(yè)作為處理組,將非試點(diǎn)地區的工業(yè)子行業(yè)作為對照組。基于雙重差分法的分析表明,相較于對照組,試點(diǎn)ETS在啟動(dòng)后不僅促進(jìn)了處理組工業(yè)子行業(yè)碳排放絕對量的下降,還促進(jìn)了其碳排放強度的下降,說(shuō)明試點(diǎn)ETS具有明顯的碳減排效果。工業(yè)子行業(yè)的總產(chǎn)值和人均總產(chǎn)值分別與其碳排放量和碳排放強度呈現出一定的庫茲涅茨曲線(xiàn)效應,工業(yè)子行業(yè)資產(chǎn)的流動(dòng)性越強、盈利能力越強、面臨的環(huán)境規制強度越大,越有利于碳減排。建議主管部門(mén)堅定依靠市場(chǎng)手段來(lái)控制溫室氣體排放,盡快將更多行業(yè)納入全國ETS;另外,應提高體系運行相關(guān)數據的公開(kāi)力度,定期對體系進(jìn)行分析評估,并及時(shí)公布評估結果。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 碳排放權交易體系, 碳減排效果, 雙重差分, 工業(yè)子行業(yè)

      Abstract: Existing studies evaluating the carbon emission reduction effect of China's pilot emissions trading schemes (ETSs) suffer a common problem that the sample selection range of the treatment group is obviously larger than the actual coverage of pilot ETSs. Stricter criteria have been applied in identifying the research samples in this study: within the six energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors in China's provinces from 2005 to 2017, only those in which the volume of ETS-covered enterprises accounts for 60% or more of the sub-sectors' total are regarded as the treatment group, and all industrial sub-sectors in non-pilot provinces the control group. Based on the difference-in-difference method, it is found that compared to the control group, China's pilot ETSs have reduced not only the carbon emissions of the sub-sectors in the treatment group, but also their carbon intensities, demonstrating the mitigation effectiveness of China's pilot ETSs. The gross output value and per capita output value of the industrial sub-sectors show to some extent a Kuznets curve effect with carbon emissions and carbon intensity, respectively; higher degree of asset liquidity and the profitability and tighter of environmental regulations is conducive to carbon emission reductions. It is thus essential that more sectors other than the power generation will be covered by China's national ETS as soon as possible. In addition, more efforts should be made to disclose system design and operation data for the purpose of assessing the scheme performance more effectively and in a more transparently manner.

      Key words: Emissions trading schemes, Carbon emission reduction effect, Difference-in-difference, Industrial sub-sectors

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