CMIP6模式對青藏高原東坡暖季降水的模擬評估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.059

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原東坡陡峭地形區(qū)是氣候模式陸地降水模擬偏差的大值區(qū),且這一偏差長期未得到有效改善。基于17個參加國際耦合模式比較計劃第六階段（CMIP6）的全球氣候模式的日降水結果,評估了當前最新一代的氣候模式對青藏高原東坡地區(qū)2000—2014年暖季（5—9月）降水氣候態(tài)及其季節(jié)內演變的模擬能力。結果表明：高原東坡降水正偏差存在于大部分的CMIP6模式當中,且模式虛假降水主要源于對強降水（降水量≥6 mm/d）的過量模擬,模式對<6 mm/d的弱降水的模擬略小于觀測。盡管模式對高原東坡暖季平均降水表現出一致性的高估,但不同模式對于不同月份降水的模擬存在較大不同。基于環(huán)流場的分析顯示,高原東坡強降水的季節(jié)內演變與高原東坡及其以東對流層中層偏南風的演變密切相關,表明模式對于對流層中層環(huán)流的模擬雖然不是導致高原東坡強降水模擬正偏差的最主要因素,但對于環(huán)流季節(jié)內變化的合理模擬是模式能否再現高原東坡強降水逐月變化的一個關鍵因子。

關鍵詞: CMIP6模式, 青藏高原東坡地區(qū), 暖季降水, 大氣環(huán)流

Abstract:

The steep terrain area in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau is a large deviation area for climate models in the processes of simulating land precipitation, and this deviation has not been effectively improved for a long time. Based on the daily precipitation of 17 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the ability of the latest climate models to simulate precipitation climatological characteristics and their intraseasonal evolution over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau during the warm season (May to September) from 2000 to 2014 was assessed. The results show that the positive precipitation deviation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau exists in most CMIP6 models, and the false precipitation center mainly comes from the over-simulation of the heavy rainfall (precipitation≥6 mm/d), and the simulation of the weak rainfall (precipitation<6 mm/d) is smaller than that of TRMM observation. Although there is a consistent over-simulation of the warm season precipitation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, there are large differences in the simulation of precipitation for different months between models. The analysis based on the circulation field shows that the intraseasonal evolution of the heavy rainfall in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau is closely related to the evolution of southerly wind anomalies in the mid-troposphere in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and east to it. The above results indicate that although the simulation of the mid-tropospheric circulation is not the main factor causing the positive deviation of the simulation of heavy rainfall in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, the reasonable simulation of the intraseasonal variation of the circulation is a key factor for a model to reproduce the month-to-month variation of heavy rainfall on the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau.

Key words: CMIP6 models, Eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, Warm season precipitation, Atmospheric circulation

張歆然, 陳昊明. CMIP6模式對青藏高原東坡暖季降水的模擬評估[J]. 氣候變化研究進展, 2022, 18(2): 129-141.

ZHANG Xin-Ran, CHEN Hao-Ming. Assessment of warm season precipitation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau by CMIP6 models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2): 129-141.

圖/表 10

表1 17個CMIP6模式的基本信息

Table 1 The information of 17 CMIP6 models

圖1 降水的空間分布注：黑色等值線為500 m地形高度線;紅色方框為高原東坡地區(qū),范圍為（101°~106°E,29°~34°N）。

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of precipitation. (The black contour is the 500 m terrain height line, the red box (101˚-106˚E, 29˚-34˚N) is the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau)

圖2 同圖1,但為CMIP6各模式與TRMM觀測偏差的空間分布

Fig. 2 Same as Fig. 1, but for the spatial distribution of precipitation deviation between CMIP6 models and TRMM observation

圖3 29˚~31˚N平均的降水隨經度的分布注：灰色豎虛線為TRMM觀測強降水中心的位置。

Fig. 3 Distribution of precipitation average between 29˚N and 31˚N. (The gray vertical dashed line is the location of the TRMM observation precipitation center)

圖4 CMIP6各模式與TRMM觀測中降水空間分布的泰勒圖(a)東亞區(qū)域（70˚~130˚E,10˚~50˚N),(b)青藏高原東側區(qū)域（100˚~110˚E,25˚~35˚N）注：其中模式BCC-CSM2-MR（-0.06）、CAMS-CSM1-0（-0.31）和CMCC-CM2-SR5（-0.07）與TRMM觀測的相關系數為負,圖中未顯示。

Fig. 4 Taylor diagram of the spatial distribution of precipitation between each CMIP6 model and TRMM observation. (a) East Asian region (70˚-130˚E, 10˚-50˚N), (b) the region of eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (100˚-110˚E, 25˚-35˚N)

圖5 CMIP6各模式對青藏高原東坡地區(qū)不同強度降水的模擬(a)發(fā)生頻次占總日數的百分比,(b)年累積降水量分布

Fig. 5 Simulation of each CMIP6 model for different intensity precipitation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan plateau. (a) Occurrence as a percentage of total days, (b) annual precipitation

圖6 青藏高原東坡地區(qū)降水的逐月演變

Fig. 6 Monthly evolution of precipitation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau

圖7 2000—2014年平均500 hPa風場的空間分布

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of horizontal wind at 500 hPa

圖8 青藏高原東坡地區(qū)日降水序列與東亞地區(qū)500 hPa日南風序列相關系數空間分布注：黑色虛框（105°~109°E,29°~34°N）為正相關大值中心。

Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the precipitation series in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and other regional 500 hPa southerly wind series in the East Asia region. (The black dashed box is the center of positive correlation)

圖9 青藏高原東坡地區(qū)的年降水量與圖8中正相關中心500 hPa南風分量的逐旬演變注：圖中灰色虛線代表旬,如圖中橫坐標上5表示5月中旬,上一條灰色虛線表示5月上旬,后一條灰色虛線表示5月下旬。

Fig. 9 Decade-by-decade evolution of precipitation (red line) in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and the south wind (black line) in the positive correlation center in Fig. 8. (The gray dotted line in the figure represents every ten days, for example, 5 in the figure refers to mid-May, the upper gray dotted line refers to early May, and the latter gray dotted line refers to late May)

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