IPCC第六次評估報告歷史排放趨勢和驅動(dòng)因素相關(guān)核心結論解讀

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.153

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展

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IPCC第六次評估報告歷史排放趨勢和驅動(dòng)因素相關(guān)核心結論解讀

譚顯春^{1, 3}，戴瀚程²，顧佰和¹，黃晨²，朱開(kāi)偉¹，馬嘯天²，閆洪碩^{1, 3}，劉心遠²，朱衍磊²

1 中國科學(xué)院科技戰略咨詢(xún)研究院，北京100190； 2 北京大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院，北京100871； 3 中國科學(xué)院大學(xué)公共政策與管理學(xué)院，北京100049

收稿日期:2022-06-23 修回日期:2022-07-14 出版日期:2022-11-17 發(fā)布日期:2022-11-17
通訊作者: 譚顯春
基金資助:
聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專(zhuān)門(mén)委員會(huì )IPCC第六次評估報告中國作者專(zhuān)項;國家基金委重點(diǎn)項目

Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

TAN Xian-Chun^{1, 3}, DAI Han-Cheng², GU Bai-He¹, HUANG Chen², ZHU Kai-Wei¹, MA Xiao-Tian², YAN Hong-Shuo^{1, 3}, LIU Xin-Yuan², ZHU Yan-Lei²

1 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;
2 College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
3 School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-06-23 Revised:2022-07-14 Online:2022-11-17 Published:2022-11-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： IPCC報告第三工作組中“排放歷史趨勢和驅動(dòng)因素”章節是歷次評估報告的核心內容之一。2022年4月發(fā)布的第六次評估報告(AR6)，在簡(jiǎn)要回顧1850-2019年歷史累計排放趨勢后，主要分析了1990—2019年期間溫室氣體排放趨勢與驅動(dòng)因素。相比于第五次評估報告(AR5)，在歷史排放趨勢方面，AR6在時(shí)間尺度上重點(diǎn)分析2010—2019年的近期變化，在研究?jì)热萆细油怀?.5℃溫控目標的重要性，強化了對土地利用變化相關(guān)溫室氣體排放的關(guān)注，強調生產(chǎn)與消費視角下碳排放趨勢及其區域演變趨勢，探究了新冠肺炎疫情對全球碳排放的短期影響；在驅動(dòng)因素方面，除了考慮全球和區域層面，還增加了基于能源、工業(yè)、建筑、交通、農林及其它土地利用（AFOLU）等部門(mén)視角的經(jīng)濟驅動(dòng)因素分解及地區間差異分析，系統體現全球、區域和部門(mén)三層次下驅動(dòng)因素的異同，指出區域層面存在能源轉型成效，肯定了現有氣候政策對氣候減緩的積極影響以及突出技術(shù)變革與創(chuàng )新對氣候減緩的益處，明確了化石能源基礎設施碳鎖定效應的不利影響等。最后，結合本章節關(guān)鍵結論的基礎上，評估了相關(guān)結論對我國低碳發(fā)展的可能影響和啟示。

關(guān)鍵詞: IPCC第六次評估報告, 減緩氣候變化, 歷史排放趨勢, 驅動(dòng)因素, 氣候變化

Abstract: ‘Emission Trends and Drivers’ chapter, an important basis for international climate negotiations, is one of the core contents of each assessment report. The trends and driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019 are discussed in this chapter in the sixth assessment report (AR6) which released in April 2022. Compared with the content in the fifth assessment report (AR5), in terms of historical emission trends, AR6 focuses on the changes from 2010 to 2019, highlights the importance of the 1.5℃ temperature control target, pays more attention to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change, and further emphasizes the carbon emission trend and its regional evolution trend from the perspective of production and consumption. Besides, the short-term impact of COVID-19 on global carbon emissions is explored. In terms of driving factors, besides analyzing the global and regional economic driving factors, the economic driving factors and differences in energy, industry, construction, transportation, agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors are also studied, which systematically reflecting the similarities and differences of driving factors at the global, regional and departmental levels. The result affirms the positive impact of existing climate policies on climate mitigation, highlights the benefits of technological change and innovation on climate mitigation, and identifies the adverse impact of carbon locking of fossil energy infrastructure. Finally, based on the full analysis of the key conclusions in AR6, some suggestions on China's low-carbon development are given.

Key words: IPCC AR6, climate mitigation, emission trends, driving factors, climate change

譚顯春戴瀚程顧佰和黃晨朱開(kāi)偉馬嘯天閆洪碩劉心遠朱衍磊. IPCC第六次評估報告歷史排放趨勢和驅動(dòng)因素相關(guān)核心結論解讀[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.153.

TAN Xian-Chun, DAI Han-Cheng, GU Bai-He, HUANG Chen, ZHU Kai-Wei, MA Xiao-Tian, YAN Hong-Shuo, LIU Xin-Yuan, ZHU Yan-Lei. Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report[J]. Climate Change Research, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.153.

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參考文獻 7

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IPCC第六次評估報告歷史排放趨勢和驅動(dòng)因素相關(guān)核心結論解讀

Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Emission Trends and Drivers from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

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