基于動(dòng)態(tài)重現期的極端高溫氣候評估方法研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.008

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展

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基于動(dòng)態(tài)重現期的極端高溫氣候評估方法研究

涂鍇，嚴中偉，范麗軍，李珍

中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所東亞區域氣候?環(huán)境重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室

收稿日期:2022-01-17 修回日期:2022-04-18 接受日期:2022-09-07 出版日期:2022-09-07 發(fā)布日期:2022-09-07
通訊作者: 涂鍇，男，助理研究員
基金資助:
中國科學(xué)院戰略性先導科技專(zhuān)項“地球大數據科學(xué)工程” 地球大數據支撐氣候行動(dòng)可持續發(fā)展目標研究（XDA1909012201）；中國科學(xué)院戰略性先導科技專(zhuān)項“地球大數據科學(xué)工程”一帶一路極端氣候和災害星地觀(guān)測（XDA19030402）

Study of evaluation method on the climate of extreme high temperatures based on dynamic return periods

TU Kai, YAN Zhong-Wei, FAN Li-Jun, LI Zhen

Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperature East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China Academy of Sciences

Received:2022-01-17 Revised:2022-04-18 Accepted:2022-09-07 Online:2022-09-07 Published:2022-09-07
Contact: TU Kai

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用全國754站逐日最高氣溫觀(guān)測序列，在論證極端溫度概率分布與非平穩性關(guān)系的基礎上，構建和比較了多種非平穩廣義極值模型，定義了極端高溫的動(dòng)態(tài)重現期和重現水平，提出了一種極端高溫事件的新型評估思想和方法，并將其應用于極端氣候變化研究。通過(guò)該方法可以更好地解釋極端事件的真實(shí)極端性，有效地增強極端事件之間的可比性，從而保留更多歷史極端氣候事件的信息。動(dòng)態(tài)重現期的變換運用可對當前極端事件發(fā)生的真實(shí)狀態(tài)和趨勢提出更準確評估。該方法的提出可有效澄清學(xué)術(shù)領(lǐng)域和公共輿論對于多年一遇極端事件的理解上長(cháng)期混淆重現期的絕對值和概率性這一分歧和謬誤。

關(guān)鍵詞: 極端高溫, 動(dòng)態(tài)重現期, 廣義極值分布, 非平穩模型

Abstract:

For 754 homogenized daily maximum temperature series across rapid warming China during past 40 years, dynamic return periods and return levels were investigated based on various nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, and new method of evaluation for high temperature extremes was proposed. By this method, the extremality of extreme climate events can be better explained. This method also enhances the comparability between climate extremes, thus more historical information can be well preserved. Transformed applications of dynamic return periods between stationary and nonstationary models can provide more accurate and reliable assessment about current state of climate extremes in climate change studies. Finally, some long-existing disagreements and mistakes in understanding “once-in-N-year” extreme events (i.e. as a value or a probability) between academic circles and public opinions are clarified effectively via the new method.

Key words: Extreme temperature, Dynamic return periods, Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), nonstationary models

涂鍇嚴中偉范麗軍李珍. 基于動(dòng)態(tài)重現期的極端高溫氣候評估方法研究[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.008.

TU Kai, YAN Zhong-Wei, FAN Li-Jun, LI Zhen. Study of evaluation method on the climate of extreme high temperatures based on dynamic return periods[J]. Climate Change Research, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.008.

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基于動(dòng)態(tài)重現期的極端高溫氣候評估方法研究

Study of evaluation method on the climate of extreme high temperatures based on dynamic return periods

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