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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2009, Vol. 5 ?? Issue (03): 179-184.

      ? 對策論壇 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      天水市干旱氣候變化特征及糧食作物結構調整

      楊小利,姚小英,蒲金涌,馬鵬里   

      1. 甘肅省天水市氣象局
      • 收稿日期:2008-08-11 修回日期:2008-11-18 出版日期:2009-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2009-05-30
      • 通訊作者: 姚小英

      Changes of Arid Climate in Tianshui and Adjustment of Planting Structure of Summer and Autumn Crops

      • Received:2008-08-11 Revised:2008-11-18 Online:2009-05-30 Published:2009-05-30

      摘要: 分析了天水市1960-2005年干旱氣候特征,包括溫度、降水等氣候因子及土壤水分、干旱頻次等變化特點(diǎn)。結果表明,20世紀90年代為近46 a來(lái)降水的最低值,進(jìn)入21世紀后,降水變率明顯增大。氣溫自20世紀60年代總體呈上升趨勢,特別是90年代以來(lái)上升趨勢明顯,土壤蒸散發(fā)加大。20世紀90年代土壤含水量最少,水分虧缺最為嚴重,春旱、初夏旱、伏旱出現幾率最多。根據46 a來(lái)干旱氣候變化特點(diǎn)及其對主要糧食作物生長(cháng)的影響,引進(jìn)影響系數,對主要夏、秋糧作物種植風(fēng)險程度進(jìn)行評估,并運用線(xiàn)性風(fēng)險決策模式, 提出適應干旱氣候特點(diǎn)的當地主要糧食作物種植比例調整方案。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 干旱氣候變化, 糧食作物, 結構調整

      Abstract: The characteristics and changes of arid climate, including temperature, precipitation and other factors, such as drought frequency and soil moisture, were analyzed for 1960-2005 in Tianshui, Gansu Province. The results indicate that precipitation in the 1990s was the least in recent 50 years, the change rate of precipitation has increased obviously since the 21st century. Temperature has increased generally since the 1960s, especially in the 1990s. The soil moisture was the lowest and in serious deficit; and spring drought, early summer drought and midsummer drought occurred more frequently in the 1990s. According to the change characteristics of arid climate and their effects on the growth of grain crops, the influence coefficient of drought to the yield of grain crops was introduced, and levels of the planting risk of main summer and autumn crops were also assessed. Finally, a plan of planting structure adjustment for main grain crops adapting to changes in arid climate is also provided based on a linear risk decision model.

      Key words: arid climate change, grain crops, adjustment of planting structure

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