氣候變暖對(duì)中國不同地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)的影響

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2007, Vol. 03 ?? Issue (04): 229-233.

氣候變暖對(duì)中國不同地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)的影響

劉穎杰林而達(dá)

中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所

收稿日期:2006-06-22 修回日期:2007-03-19 出版日期:2007-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2007-07-30
通訊作者: 劉穎杰

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in Different Regions of China

Received:2006-06-22 Revised:2007-03-19 Online:2007-07-30 Published:2007-07-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 摘要：利用國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局《中國農(nóng)村統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》1984-2003年的數(shù)據(jù)和同期年平均溫度的觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，分析了我國不同地區(qū)20年間溫度變化、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)資料投入以及播種面積變化對(duì)糧食總產(chǎn)的影響。結(jié)果表明，以溫度升高為主要特征的氣候變化對(duì)東北地區(qū)農(nóng)作物增產(chǎn)有明顯促進(jìn)作用，對(duì)華北、西北和西南地區(qū)的農(nóng)作物增產(chǎn)有一定抑制作用，對(duì)華東和中南地區(qū)的農(nóng)作物糧食產(chǎn)量的影響則不明顯。農(nóng)業(yè)投入的增加對(duì)各地區(qū)的農(nóng)作物增產(chǎn)在早期作用均顯著，后期則增長緩慢。而各地區(qū)播種面積的變化對(duì)其總產(chǎn)量影響不太明顯，但華東和中南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)播種面積的持續(xù)下降對(duì)糧食總產(chǎn)量有較大的抑制作用。

關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候變化, 糧食產(chǎn)量, 農(nóng)業(yè)投入

Abstract: Abstract: This paper, using the data from "China Rural Statistical Yearbook" 1984-2003 of National Bureau of Statistics and the observation data of average temperature in the same term, has analyzed the impacts of temperature change、the agricultural input and the sown area changes in different regions of China during the last 20 years. The results show that, the climate change with the main character of getting warmer has obviously promoted the crop production increase in the Northeast of China, but restrain which in the North、Northwest and Southwest of China, and has not obvious effects on it in the East and Central South of China. The increase of agricultural input enhances the production obviously in the various regions in the early stages, but the speed of production increase become slowness in the later period. The sown area change has not obvious effects on the production in the various regions, but the continuous decreased sown area has restrained the production in the East and Central South of China.

Key words: climate change, food crop production, agriculture invesment

劉穎杰林而達(dá). 氣候變暖對(duì)中國不同地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)的影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2007, 03(04): 229-233.

. Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in Different Regions of China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2007, 03(04): 229-233.

[1]	史培軍,楊文濤. 山區(qū)孕災(zāi)環(huán)境下地震和極端天氣氣候?qū)Φ刭\|(zhì)災(zāi)害的影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(4): 405-414.
[2]	徐粒,李倩,王瑛,黃靖玲,許映軍. 氣候變化情景下泥石流危險(xiǎn)性響應(yīng)分析[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(4): 415-423.
[3]	王天鵬,滕飛. 可計(jì)算一般均衡框架下的氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)影響綜合評(píng)估[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(4): 480-490.
[4]	李柔珂,韓振宇,徐影,石英,吳佳. 高分辨率區(qū)域氣候變化降尺度數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)京津冀地區(qū)高溫GDP和人口暴露度的集合預(yù)估[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(4): 491-504.
[5]	袁媛,李國慶. 日本多主體適應(yīng)氣候變化框架機(jī)制及對(duì)中國的啟示——基于法律政策的視角[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(4): 505-515.
[6]	田丹宇,鄭文茹. 國外應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的立法進(jìn)展與啟示[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(4): 526-534.
[7]	張奇謀,王潤,姜彤,陳松生. RCPs情景下漢江流域未來極端降水的模擬與預(yù)估[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(3): 276-286.
[8]	黃鶴樓,鄒旭愷,丁燁毅,陳鮮艷,石英,肖風(fēng)勁. 氣候變化對(duì)寧波四明山人體舒適度的影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(3): 316-324.
[9]	張小全, 謝茜, 曾楠. 基于自然的氣候變化解決方案[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(3): 336-344.
[10]	樊星,王際杰,王田,高翔. 馬德里氣候大會(huì)盤點(diǎn)及全球氣候治理展望[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(3): 367-372.
[11]	王朋嶺,黃磊,巢清塵,袁佳雙,陳超. IPCC SROCC的主要結(jié)論和啟示[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(2): 133-142.
[12]	成里京. SROCC：海洋熱含量變化評(píng)估[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(2): 172-181.
[13]	蔡榕碩,韓志強(qiáng),楊正先. 海洋的變化及其對(duì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和人類社會(huì)的影響、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及應(yīng)對(duì)[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(2): 182-193.
[14]	翁宇威,蔡聞佳,王燦. 共享社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)路徑（SSPs）的應(yīng)用與展望[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(2): 215-222.
[15]	黃萌田, 周佰銓, 翟盤茂. 極端天氣氣候事件變化對(duì)荒漠化、土地退化和糧食安全的影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2020, 16(1): 17-27.

国产综合在线观看视频,国产精品原创视频,亚洲国产熟亚洲女视频,一级风流片a级国产