国产综合在线观看视频,国产精品原创视频,亚洲国产熟亚洲女视频,一级风流片a级国产

關(guān)鍵詞: PRECIS, SRES A2情景, 極端事件

Abstract: Abstract: The PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3H, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, was employed to analyze the future climate change in 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario over China relative to the reference period of 1961-1990. The mean climate state as well as the frequency and intensity of daily extreme events were investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with a focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. Regarding the interannual variation of projected temperature and precipitation over the whole integration period, we find that the temperature shows a persistently increasing trend, especially in Northwest China and Northeast China. The projected precipitation in the future shows generally greater amounts than in the reference run despite significant interannual variation. Based on the spatial distribution, the winter precipitation would decrease in the south of China while greatly increase around the Yellow River, the changes of precipitation in summer would be vice versa to winter. A substantial increase (decrease) of hot (frost) spells is projected along with increasing of maximum and minimum temperatures. Wet spells tend to be more frequent, accompanying the increase of precipitation amounts.

Key words: PRECIS, SRES A2 scenario, extreme events