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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2010, Vol. 6 ?? Issue (04): 265-269.

      ? 氣候系統(tǒng)變化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      中國主要河流流域極端降水變化特征

      陳峪,陳鮮艷,任國玉   

      1. 國家氣候中心
      • 收稿日期:2009-12-04 修回日期:2010-02-08 出版日期:2010-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2010-07-30
      • 通訊作者: 陳峪

      Variation of Extreme Precipitation over Large River Basins in China

      1. National Climate Center
      • Received:2009-12-04 Revised:2010-02-08 Online:2010-07-30 Published:2010-07-30

      摘要: 利用中國1956-2008年逐日降水量資料,以全國主要河流流域為研究區(qū)域,分析了年最大日降水量、年暴雨(日降水量≥50.0 mm)日數(shù)的多年平均狀況及長期變化趨勢。分析表明,近53年,全國平均年最大日降水量沒有明顯的線性變化趨勢,但全國范圍內(nèi)多數(shù)氣象站點(diǎn)年最大日降水量呈現(xiàn)出增加趨勢,并存在南方流域增加、北方流域減少的變化趨勢,這種變化特征在2001年以來表現(xiàn)更加突出。全國平均年暴雨日數(shù)呈不顯著的增多趨勢,20世紀(jì)90年代最多,70年代最少。空間上,我國南北方流域年暴雨日數(shù)呈現(xiàn)相反的變化特征,南方流域多呈上升趨勢,北方流域呈減少趨勢。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 流域, 暴雨日數(shù), 極端降水, 氣候變化

      Abstract: In this study, we chose ten major river basins in China as the study area, and defined southern and northern river-basin regions. The northern region includes the Songhua River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, Yellow River and Northwest China rivers, and the southern region contains the Huaihe River, Yangtze River, Pearl River, Southeast China rivers and Southwest China rivers. Variation characteristics of the nationwide-averaged maximum daily rainfall amount and heavy rain (daily rainfall amount≥50.0 mm) frequency over each river basin and the northern and southern regions were analyzed by using the daily precipitation data over China for the last 53 years of 1956-2008. Results indicate that maximum daily rainfall amount averaged over the entire country showed no obvious trend, but there were some differences between southern and northern river basins, with increasing trends over southern river basins but decreasing trends over northern river basins especially after 2001. The frequency of heavy rain displayed an indistinct increasing trend over the whole China, but exhibited an increasing trend in the southern river basins and a decreasing trend in the northern river basins. On the whole, more heavy rain occurred in the 1990s than in other decades, with the least heavy rain in the 1970s.

      Key words: river basin, heavy rain days, extreme precipitation, climate change, China

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