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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2007, Vol. 03 ?? Issue (03): 172-176.

      ? 研究短論 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      利用樹輪資料重建1751-2005年崆峒山地區(qū)夏季溫度變化

      侯迎 王乃昂 李鋼 鄭芳   

      1. 蘭州大學(xué)
      • 收稿日期:2006-09-29 修回日期:2007-05-14 出版日期:2007-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2007-05-30
      • 通訊作者: 侯迎

      Reconstruction of Summer Average Temperature from Tree-Ring Proxy Data During 1751-2005 in Mt. Kongtong

        

      • Received:2006-09-29 Revised:2007-05-14 Online:2007-05-30 Published:2007-05-30

      摘要: 利用采自崆峒山區(qū)的66根油松樹輪樣芯,建立了采樣點(diǎn)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)年表、差值年表和自回歸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化年表。相關(guān)分析表明,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)年表與當(dāng)年夏季均溫有顯著的相關(guān)性,通過建立回歸方程,重建了1751-2005年崆峒山地區(qū)夏季溫度序列。結(jié)果表明,自1751年以來,研究區(qū)存在3個(gè)高溫期(1786-1847年、1894-1937年、1987-2004年)和3個(gè)低溫期(1764-1785年、1852-1893年、1952-1986年)。與Nino3指數(shù)、南方濤動(dòng)指數(shù)(SOI)和太陽黑子數(shù)等對(duì)比表明,崆峒山地區(qū)對(duì)全球大尺度氣候變化及太陽活動(dòng)都有較好的響應(yīng)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 樹輪寬度指數(shù), 夏季均溫, 氣候變化, 崆峒山

      Abstract: Based on the Pinus tabulaeformis tree-ring records from Mt. Kongtong, this paper focused on its environment change history. After laboratory approaches like mounting, polishing, cross-dating and high precision measuring, 66 tree-ring cores are used to establish three types of tree-ring width chronologies: standard chronology (STD), residual chronology (RES), and autoregression standard chronology (ARS). Correlation analysis between the chronologies and meteorological observation data shows that the standard tree-ring index has the best correlation with the average temperature of summer. Regression model is also founded according to the analysis results. Different verification results show that the regression model is stable and reliable. The summer average temperature sequence during the period of 1751-2005 is reconstructed, and it exhibits three cold periods: 1764-1785, 1852-1893, 1952-1986 and three warm periods: 1786-1847, 1894-1937, 1987-2004. Comparisons of the temperature with Nino3 index, SOI index and sunspot number suggest that the study area has good response to global climate change and solar activities.

      Key words: tree-ring width index, summer average temperature, climate change, Mt. Kongtong

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