|
|
氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2008, Vol. 4 ?? Issue (003): 140-144.
張利平 夏軍 胡志芳
Xia Jun
摘要: 華北地區的水資源短缺及相關(guān)的生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化是中國亟待解決的問(wèn)題之一。降水是水資源最重要的因素,根據華北地區25個(gè)測站的長(cháng)期年降水量資料和15個(gè)測站歷史旱澇資料,利用Mann-Kendall檢驗、功率譜和小波變換等方法進(jìn)行的分析研究表明,華北地區的降水存在明顯的準2 a振蕩和準19 a周期變化特征,降水在1914和1964年發(fā)生了兩次突變。歷史旱澇等級時(shí)間序列有明顯的4~5 a ENSO模的振蕩、準10 a變化、準20 a變化和50~80 a世紀尺度特征。
Abstract: The issue of water shortage and related eco-environmental degradation in North China is one of the major emerging problems in China. Precipitation is the most important factor for water resources. Based on the historical series of instrumental data of annual precipitation obtained from 25 gauging stations and a long-term historical drought-flood grade dataset during the period of 1470-2000 obtained from 15 gauging stations in North China, the character of precipitation variability was analyzed by means of power spectrum and continuous wavelet transform. It was found that the precipitation was characterized by obvious seasonal changes, quasi-biennial oscillation, and quasi-19-year interdecadal periodicity. The M-K test results showed that abrupt changes in annual precipitation occurred around 1914 and 1964. As for the historical flood/dryness grade time series, it was characterized by the 4-5-year ENSO mode interannual oscillation, the quasi-10-year and quasi-24-year interdecadal variabilities and 50-80-year centurial periodicity.
Key words: North China, precipitation, drought-flood character
|