中國東北地區(qū)近百年氣溫序列的小波分析

氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2008, Vol. 4 ?? Issue (002): 122-125.

中國東北地區(qū)近百年氣溫序列的小波分析

姜曉艷劉樹華馬明敏張菁

沈陽市氣象局北京大學(xué)物理學(xué)院大氣科學(xué)系北京大學(xué)物理學(xué)院大氣科學(xué)系

收稿日期:2007-08-31 修回日期:2007-10-30 出版日期:2008-03-31 發(fā)布日期:2008-03-31
通訊作者: 劉樹華

A Wavelet Analysis of the Temperature Time Series in Northeast China During the Last 100 Years

xiaoyan Jiang Liu Shu Hua Ming min Ma Jjing Zhang

Received:2007-08-31 Revised:2007-10-30 Online:2008-03-31 Published:2008-03-31
Contact: Liu Shu-Hua

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1905-2005年中國東北地區(qū)哈爾濱、長春、沈陽和大連的氣溫時間序列資料，在分析氣溫變化結(jié)構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)上進行小波分析，以揭示氣溫變化的多時間尺度的復(fù)雜結(jié)構(gòu)。同時，分析了不同時間尺度下氣溫序列變化的周期性變化規(guī)律和突變點。結(jié)果表明：近100 a來中國東北地區(qū)的平均氣溫呈升高趨勢，尤其在20世紀80年代以后升高趨勢更加顯著，升溫率達到0.165 ℃/10 a。氣溫存在2～3 a、8～12 a、20～25 a和45 a左右時間尺度的多重時間尺度結(jié)構(gòu)的變化特征。

關(guān)鍵詞: 中國東北地區(qū), 近百年, 氣溫序列, 小波分析

Abstract: Morlet wavelet analysis was used to reveal the periodical regulations at different time scales of the temperature time series of Northeast China in the last 100 years. Based on the monthly and annual temperature data at Harbin, Shenyang, Changchun, and Dalian weather stations from 1905 to 2005, the periodic oscillation and the point of abrupt change at different time scales in the temperature time series were discovered, and the main periods for each serial were determined. The research results show that the temperature of Northeast China had an increasing trend of 0.165/10a in the past 100 years, and there were periodical variations of multiple time scales, which displayed different traits at different phases. There were obvious periodic oscillations of 2-3 a, 8-12 a, 20-25 a and 45 a periods for the seasonal and annual temperature variations.

Key words: Northeastern China, last 100 years, temperature time series, wavelet analysis

姜曉艷劉樹華馬明敏張菁. 中國東北地區(qū)近百年氣溫序列的小波分析[J]. 氣候變化研究進展, 2008, 4(002): 122-125.

xiaoyan Jiang Liu Shu Hua Ming min Ma Jjing Zhang. A Wavelet Analysis of the Temperature Time Series in Northeast China During the Last 100 Years[J]. Climate Change Research, 2008, 4(002): 122-125.

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