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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (2): 79-84.

      ? 熱議全球變暖專(zhuān)欄 ?    下一篇

      全球氣候變暖原因的爭議

      王紹武1,羅勇2,趙宗慈2,聞新宇3,黃建斌4   

      1. 1. 北京大學(xué)物理學(xué)院
        2. 國家氣候中心
        3. 北京大學(xué)物理學(xué)院大氣科學(xué)系
        4. 清華大學(xué)地球科學(xué)系統中心全球變化研究所
      • 收稿日期:2010-07-16 修回日期:2010-07-27 出版日期:2011-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-04-07
      • 通訊作者: 王紹武 E-mail:swwang@pku.edu.cn

      Debates on the Cause of Global Warming

      Luo Yong 2,Zhao Zongci 2, 2   

      • Received:2010-07-16 Revised:2010-07-27 Online:2011-03-30 Published:2011-04-07

      摘要: 綜合分析了政府間氣候變化專(zhuān)門(mén)委員會(huì )(IPCC)與非政府間國際氣候變化專(zhuān)門(mén)委員會(huì )(NIPCC)針?shù)h相對的觀(guān)點(diǎn):是人類(lèi)活動(dòng)還是自然因素主導了過(guò)去近百年的氣候變化。指出20世紀中期以來(lái)溫度變化的事實(shí)支持人類(lèi)活動(dòng)影響的觀(guān)點(diǎn),但是在近百年中自然因素如太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)、火山活動(dòng)或大洋熱鹽環(huán)流的變化,對溫度的年代際變化有重要影響。有充分的古氣候與古太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)資料證明過(guò)去千年中的中世紀暖期及小冰期,過(guò)去萬(wàn)年中的冷事件與太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)有密切關(guān)系。這說(shuō)明在歷史氣候變化中太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)有重要影響。目前一種占優(yōu)勢的觀(guān)點(diǎn)認為銀河宇宙線(xiàn)影響了低云量使氣候變冷,但是影響機制還有待于進(jìn)一步研究。

      Abstract: The controversial points of views of IPCC and NIPCC are reviewed. IPCC holds that the global warming is caused by the anthropogenic effect. However, NIPCC says, nature, not human activity, rules the climate. Observations of temperatures in the last one hundred years or so support the hypothesis of the anthropogenic impact, but natural factors such as solar activity, volcanism, and thermohaline circulation also take part in the modulation of temperature changes, especially in frequency band of inter-decadal variability. There is pervasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate in time scale of last 1 ka to 10 ka, which proves that solar activity played an important role in the formation of MWP or LIA, and the cold events over the North Atlantic in the Holocene, though the mechanism responsible for the linkage of solar activity to the earth’s climate is to be understood. Recently, the point of view that galactic cosmic rays can impact low clouds, thus resulting in climate cooling, is prevailing. However, its influencing mechanism is remained to be further investigated.

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