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      氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2007, Vol. 03 ?? Issue (03): 125-131.

      ? 研究論文 ?    下一篇

      氣候變化影響的最新認知

      林而達 吳紹洪 戴曉蘇 劉洪濱 劉春蓁 高慶先 李從先 包滿珠   

      1. 中國農業(yè)科學院農業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究所 中國科學院 地理科學與資源研究所 中國氣象局科技發(fā)展司 中國氣象局 國家氣候中心 氣候研究開放實驗室 中國環(huán)境科學研究院
      • 收稿日期:2007-04-23 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2007-05-30
      • 通訊作者: 林而達

      Updated Understanding of Climate Change Impacts

        

      • Received:2007-04-23 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-05-30 Published:2007-05-30

      摘要: 政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)第二工作組于2007年4月6日正式發(fā)布了第四次評估報告,該報告客觀、全面而審慎地評估了氣候變化已有的和未來的可能影響。現(xiàn)有觀測證據表明,人為增暖可能已對許多自然和生物系統(tǒng)產生了可辨別的影響,但由于適應以及非氣候因子的作用,許多影響還難以辨別。21世紀中期,某些中緯度和熱帶干旱地區(qū)年平均河流徑流量和可用水量會減少10%~30%;如果全球平均溫度增幅超過1.5~2.5℃,目前所評估的20%~30%動植物物種可能面臨滅絕的風險會增大;從全球角度看,局地平均溫度增加1~3℃,預計糧食生產潛力會增加,但若超過這一范圍,則會減少。兼顧適應和減緩的措施能夠降低氣候變化相關風險。

      關鍵詞: 氣候變化, 影響與適應, IPCC第二工作組, 第四次評估報告

      Abstract: "Climate Change 2007? Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was launched on April 6, 2007. This report summarize the newest peer-reviewed and comprehensive findings from international scientific communities on impact and adaptation. The observed evidence shows that it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, but many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic factors. By the mid-21th century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%~30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics; Approximately 20%~30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5~2.5℃; Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1~3℃, but above this it is projected to decrease. A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.

      Key words: climate change, impacts and adaptation, IPCC WGII, the Fourth Assessment Report

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