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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (2): 99-102.

      ? IPCC《管理極端事件和災害風(fēng)險,推進(jìn)氣候變化適應》特別報告專(zhuān)欄 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      極端事件對人類(lèi)系統的影響

      吳紹洪1,尹云鶴2   

      1. 1. 中科院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所
        2. 中國科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所
      • 收稿日期:2012-02-14 修回日期:2012-03-15 出版日期:2012-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-03-30
      • 通訊作者: 吳紹洪 E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn;wush-iog@sohu.com

      Impacts of Climate Extremes on Human Systems

      • Received:2012-02-14 Revised:2012-03-15 Online:2012-03-30 Published:2012-03-30

      摘要: 在IPCC特別報告《管理極端事件和災害風(fēng)險,推進(jìn)氣候變化適應》中,極端天氣氣候事件對人類(lèi)系統的影響是最重要的影響評估內容之一,其評估結果為:極端影響可能緣于極端天氣氣候事件,但也可能并非極端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是災害風(fēng)險的重要決定因素;極端和非極端天氣氣候事件的嚴重程度和影響在很大程度上取決于對這些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社會(huì )經(jīng)濟狀況的變化已經(jīng)影響觀(guān)測到的脆弱性和暴露度的變化趨勢;無(wú)論在發(fā)達國家還是發(fā)展中國家,沿海人居環(huán)境均暴露于極端事件,并受其影響,如小島嶼國家和亞洲大三角洲地區;脆弱人口還包括難民、國內流離失所的人和那些生活在邊遠地區的人;極端事件將極大地影響與氣候聯(lián)系密切的部門(mén),如水、農業(yè)、食物安全、健康和旅游業(yè)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 極端天氣氣候事件, 人類(lèi)系統, 暴露, 脆弱性, 影響, extreme weather-climate events, human systems, exposure, vulnerability, impacts

      Abstract: IPCC launched the special report of “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (SREX), of which impacts on human systems is one of the most important contents. This paper introduces the main assessment results. Extreme impacts can result from extreme weather and climate events, but can also occur without extreme events. The severity of the impacts of extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events depends strongly on the level of exposure and vulnerability to these events. Settlement patterns, urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic status have all influenced observed trends in vulnerability and exposure to climate extremes. Coastal settlements are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes in both developed and developing countries, such as in small island states and Asian megadeltas. Vulnerable populations also include refugees, internally displaced people, and those living in marginal areas. Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with close links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, health, and tourism.

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