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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2006, Vol. 02 ?? Issue (01): 3-08.

      ? 研究論文 ?    下一篇

      氣候變化國家評估報告(Ⅰ):中國氣候變化的歷史和未來(lái)趨勢

      丁一匯,任國玉,石廣玉,宮鵬,鄭循華,翟盤(pán)茂,張德二,趙宗慈,王紹武,王會(huì )軍,羅勇,陳亮,高學(xué)杰,戴曉蘇   

      1. 中國氣象局國家氣候中心
      • 收稿日期:2005-10-08 修回日期:2005-11-02 出版日期:2006-01-30 發(fā)布日期:2006-01-30
      • 通訊作者: 丁一匯

      National Assessment Report of Climate Change ( I ):Climate change in China and its future trend

      DING Yihui   

      • Received:2005-10-08 Revised:2005-11-02 Online:2006-01-30 Published:2006-01-30
      • Contact: DING Yihui

      摘要: 中國的氣候變化與全球變化有相當的一致性,但也存在明顯差別。在全球變暖背景下,近100 a來(lái)中國年平均地表氣溫明顯增加,升溫幅度比同期全球平均值略高。近100 a和近50 a的降水量變化趨勢不明顯,但1956年以來(lái)出現了微弱增加的趨勢。近50 a來(lái)中國主要極端天氣氣候事件的頻率和強度也出現了明顯的變化。研究表明,中國的CO2年排放量呈不斷增加趨勢,溫室氣體正輻射強迫的總和是造成氣候變暖的主要原因。對21世紀氣候變化趨勢做出的預測表明:未來(lái)20~100 a,中國地表氣溫增加明顯,降水量也呈增加趨勢。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 中國氣候變化, 極端事件, 溫室氣體, 氣溶膠, 氣候預估

      Abstract: The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, however, there still exist significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface temperature has significantly increased during the past 100 years, with slightly greater magnitude of temperature increase than the globe . The precipitation trends during the last 50 and 100 years are not obvious ,but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also assumed significant change. The research has shown that the CO2 emission in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is responsible for climate warming. The projection of climate change for the 21st century has indicated that in the future 20-100 years, the surface temperature will continue to increase and precipitation also has an increasing trend.

      Key words: climate change in China, extrem events

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