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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2007, Vol. 03 ?? Issue (03): 144-148.

      ? 極端事件專(zhuān)欄 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      極端降水事件變化的觀(guān)測研究

      翟盤(pán)茂 王萃萃 李威   

      1. 中國氣象局 預測減災司 國家氣候中心氣候系統診斷預測室
      • 收稿日期:2006-12-26 修回日期:2007-01-24 出版日期:2007-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2007-05-30
      • 通訊作者: 翟盤(pán)茂

      A Review on Study of Change in Precipitation Extremes

        

      • Received:2006-12-26 Revised:2007-01-24 Online:2007-05-30 Published:2007-05-30

      摘要: 回顧了氣候變化背景下的極端降水事件變化觀(guān)測研究的主要進(jìn)展,結合全球變化的特點(diǎn),重點(diǎn)討論了中國極端降水事件的變化特征。指出:最近50多年,我國降水強度普遍趨于增加,降水日數除西北地區外其他大部分地區顯著(zhù)減少。極端降水與總降水量變化之間的關(guān)系很密切,西北西部、長(cháng)江及長(cháng)江以南地區極端強降水事件趨于頻繁,華北地區雖然極端降水事件頻數明顯減少,但極端降水量占總降水量的比例仍有所增加。連陰雨產(chǎn)生的年降水量在華北、東北東部和西南東部地區明顯減小,在青藏高原東部和一些東南沿海地區則增加。降水日數和微量降水日數減少是近年來(lái)我國干旱化趨勢發(fā)展的一個(gè)重要特點(diǎn)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候變化, 極端降水事件, 觀(guān)測

      Abstract: Based on review of the main progresses in precipitation extremes under the background of global warming, this study discusses the character of change in precipitation extremes. It indicates that during the recent 50 years, in most parts of China, the number of precipitation days has decreased significantly except in Northwest China, while the precipitation intensity has increased significantly. In North China, the precipitation extreme has decreased, but the proportion of extreme precipitation to the total has increased relatively; the intense precipitation extreme has become frequently in the western Northwest China, over and to the south of the Yangtze River. The annual precipitation amount from wet spells has decreased significantly in North China, eastern Northeast China and the eastern part of Southwest China, but increased in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and some southeast coastal areas. The number of days of trace precipitation has decreased is an important drought tendency. The relationship between extreme precipitation and total precipitation is very complicated under the impact of climate warming.

      Key words: climate change, extreme precipitation events, observation

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