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      氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2009, Vol. 5 ?? Issue (06): 343-347.

      ? 研究論文 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      西藏地區(qū)1971-2008年臺站觀測總云量的變化特征

      唐小萍1,張核真2,路紅亞2,馬鵬飛2   

      1. 1. 西藏自治區(qū)氣象局氣候中心2. 西藏自治區(qū)氣候中心
      • 收稿日期:2009-03-17 修回日期:2009-05-07 出版日期:2009-11-30 發(fā)布日期:2009-11-30
      • 通訊作者: 唐小萍

      Characteristics of Total Cloud Amount over Tibet in 1971-2008

      • Received:2009-03-17 Revised:2009-05-07 Online:2009-11-30 Published:2009-11-30

      摘要: 利用1971-2008年西藏地區(qū)22個臺站觀測的總云量資料,初步分析研究了西藏地區(qū)總云量的變化趨勢。結(jié)果表明:西藏大部分區(qū)域年總云量呈顯著減少的趨勢,其中那曲中西部的減幅最大,達2.32%/10a,而南部邊緣年總云量減少的趨勢不顯著。總云量與降水、相對濕度呈正相關(guān),與日照時數(shù)、平均氣溫及氣溫日較差呈負相關(guān)。總云量的Hurst指數(shù)表明,西藏大部分地區(qū)總云量呈減少的趨勢,未來這種減少的趨勢將持續(xù),短時期內(nèi)不會發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 西藏, 總云量, 重標極差分析法(R/S分析)

      Abstract: By using the data of total cloud amount at 22 stations over Tibet in 1971-2008, the change trends of total cloud amount were analyzed. The results show that the annual average total cloud amount decreased remarkably in most parts of Tibet, especially in the mid-west of Naqu where the trend was -2.32%/10a; but over the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, the reducing trend was not significant. Correlation analysis demonstrates that total cloud amount was correlated positively with precipitation and relative humidity, and negatively with sunshine duration, average temperature and diurnal range of temperature. The Hurst index of total cloud amount shows that the total cloud amount had a decreasing trend in most parts of Tibet; this trend will continue, and will not change in a short period of time.

      Key words: Tibet, total cloud amount, rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis)

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