我國(guó)西北降水變化趨勢(shì)和預(yù)估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.281

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用觀測(cè)資料、GPCC再分析資料和第六次耦合模式比較計(jì)劃（CMIP6）模擬結(jié)果，研究了我國(guó)西北地區(qū)近幾十年及未來(lái)降水變化趨勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明，1979—2019年我國(guó)西北干旱半干旱區(qū)降水在全年各季節(jié)均有顯著增加，其中秋季增加最多。CMIP6模擬結(jié)果顯示，隨著全球變暖，我國(guó)西北地區(qū)降水在2015—2100年將繼續(xù)增加。至21世紀(jì)末，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，我國(guó)西北地區(qū)年平均降水量將分別增加約13.7%（37 mm）和25.8%（78 mm)，其中降水量增加最多的季節(jié)分別為夏季和春季。考慮到西北地區(qū)蒸發(fā)量也將隨全球變暖而增加，模式平均的結(jié)果顯示西北地區(qū)年平均凈降水量在兩種情景下的增幅分別約1.4%和4.9%，表明我國(guó)西北地區(qū)未來(lái)氣候呈現(xiàn)顯著的變濕趨勢(shì)。進(jìn)一步分析表明，西北地區(qū)未來(lái)降水增加可能與局地大氣低層位勢(shì)高度降低和上升運(yùn)動(dòng)加強(qiáng)有關(guān)。

關(guān)鍵詞: 西北變濕, 降水, 全球變暖, 土壤濕度, 未來(lái)預(yù)估

Abstract:

Using the observational data and simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), precipitation changes in Northwest China during 1979-2019 and under future global warming conditions are studied. Observations show that annual mean precipitation increased significantly in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China over 1979-2019. Precipitation increased significantly in all seasons, with the largest increase in autumn. CMIP6 projection simulations show that precipitation in Northwest China will continue to increase from 2015 to 2100 along with global warming. Compared with that of the other regions in China, the increase of precipitation percentage is the largest in Northwest China. According to the projection of multi-mode ensemble mean, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the increasing rates of annual mean precipitation in Northwest China are about 1.6%/(10 a) and 3.0%/(10 a), respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the annual mean precipitation in Northwest China will increase by ~13.7% (37 mm) for SSP2-4.5 and ~25.8% (78 mm) for SSP5-8.5. The seasons with the largest increase in precipitation are summer for SSP2-4.5 and spring for SSP5-8.5. Considering that evaporation in Northwest China will also increase with global warming, the annual mean net precipitation in Northwest China will increase by ~1.4% for SSP2-4.5 and ~4.9% for SSP5-8.5 at the end of the 21st century. Consequently, the increase of near surface soil moisture in Northwest China are ~10% for SSP2-4.5 and ~20% for SSP5-8.5. These results indicate that there is a significant wetting trend in Northwest China in the future. Further analysis also shows that future precipitation increasing in Northwest China are due to decreases of geopotential heights at the lower troposphere, which enhances upward motions.

Key words: Wetting in Northwest China, Precipitation, Global warming, Soil moisture, Future projection

張?jiān)婂? 胡永云, 李智博. 我國(guó)西北降水變化趨勢(shì)和預(yù)估[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2022, 18(6): 683-694.

ZHANG Shi-Yan, HU Yong-Yun, LI Zhi-Bo. Recent changes and future projection of precipitation in Northwest China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 683-694.

圖/表 10

表1 本文所用的25個(gè)CMIP6模式模擬結(jié)果

Table 1 The 25 CMIP6 models and their outputs used in this study

圖1 1979—2019年GPCC再分析資料和我國(guó)臺(tái)站觀測(cè)資料中年降水量（a,b）氣候平均態(tài)和（c,d）變化趨勢(shì) 注：圖(c)中打點(diǎn)區(qū)域和圖(d)中實(shí)心圓表示降水變化通過(guò)95%的信度檢驗(yàn)，下同。

Fig. 1 Climatological annual mean precipitation (a, b) and precipitation trends (c, d) over 1979-2019. (Regions with dots in plot (c) and solid circles in plot (d) indicate that precipitation changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, with the Student t-test, the same below)

圖2 1979—2019年西北地區(qū)月降水量變化趨勢(shì) 注：*表示降水變化趨勢(shì)通過(guò)了95%的信度檢驗(yàn)。

Fig. 2 Trends in monthly mean precipitation in Northwest China over 1979-2019. (Asterisks indicate that the trends are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level)

圖3 CMIP6模擬的1979—2014年年降水量(a)、變化趨勢(shì)(c)及分別與GPCC資料結(jié)果的偏差(b, d)

Fig. 3 Climatological annual mean precipitation (a) and precipitation trends (c) over 1979-2014 in CMIP6 historical simulations, as well as their differences (b, d) from GPCC

圖4 觀測(cè)和模擬的1979—2100年我國(guó)西北地區(qū)季節(jié)平均降水變化量時(shí)間序列注：降水變化量為減去起始5年（1979—1983年）的平均降水量；灰色、黃色和紅色陰影分別表示歷史模擬、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下試驗(yàn)的模式間離散度。

Fig. 4 Time series of seasonal mean precipitation anomalies in Northwest China over 1979-2100. (Precipitation anomalies are calculated by subtracting the mean precipitation of the first 5 years (1979-1983) of the time series. Gray, yellow and red shadings indicate the inter-model spreads of precipitation in the historical, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 simulations, respectively)

圖5 CMIP6預(yù)估的2015—2100年我國(guó)年平均降水量（a,b）、蒸發(fā)量（c,d）和凈降水量（e,f）變化趨勢(shì)百分比

Fig. 5 CMIP6 projected percentage of annual mean precipitation (a, b), evaporation (c, d) and net precipitation (e, f) changes in China over 2015-2100

圖6 CMIP6的 25個(gè)模式預(yù)估的2015—2100年西北地區(qū)平均年降水量、蒸發(fā)量和凈降水量變化趨勢(shì)百分比注：×表示模式集合平均值。圓圈表示單個(gè)模式的結(jié)果，其中實(shí)心圓表示趨勢(shì)通過(guò)95%信度檢驗(yàn)。

Fig. 6 CMIP6 projected percentage of annual mean precipitation, evaporation and net precipitation changes in Northwest China over 2015-2100. (× denotes the ensemble mean. Circles denote results of individual models)

圖7 CMIP6預(yù)估的2015—2100年SSP2-4.5情景(a)和SSP5-8.5情景(b)下我國(guó)年平均近地面土壤濕度變化趨勢(shì)百分比

Fig. 7 Projected percentage of trends in annual mean near surface soil moisture in China by CMIP6 for SSP2-4.5 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b)

圖8 2015—2100年SSP2-4.5 (a)和SSP5-8.5情景(b)下西北地區(qū)降水量回歸的700 hPa位勢(shì)高度緯向距平變化趨勢(shì) 注：等值線表示模式模擬的700 hPa位勢(shì)高度氣候平均場(chǎng)的緯向距平（減去緯向平均)，等值線間隔為10 m。填充色表示位勢(shì)高度的變化趨勢(shì)，打點(diǎn)區(qū)域表示位勢(shì)高度的變化趨勢(shì)通過(guò)95%信度檢驗(yàn)。

Fig. 8 Trends of annual mean 700 hPa geopotential heights over 2015-2100 regressed against the precipitation in Northwest China for SSP2-4.5 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b). (Contours indicate climatological zonal anomalies of geopotential heights, and contour intervals are 10 m. Color shading indicates trends in geopotential heights)

圖9 2015—2100年SSP2-4.5 (a)和SSP5-8.5 (b)情景下西北地區(qū)降水量回歸的700 hPa大氣垂直速度變化趨勢(shì) 注：等值線表示模式模擬的700 hPa垂直速度氣候平均場(chǎng)（正值表示下沉運(yùn)動(dòng)，負(fù)值表示上升運(yùn)動(dòng)，等值線間隔為10-3 Pa/s)。填充色表示垂直速度的變化趨勢(shì)。

Fig. 9 Trends of annual mean 700 hPa vertical velocity over 2015-2100 regressed against the precipitation in Northwest China for SSP2-4.5 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b). (Contours indicate climatological vertical velocity, and contour intervals are 10-3 Pa/s. Color shading indicates trends in vertical velocity)

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