新、舊氣候態(tài)差異及對中國地區(qū)氣候和極端事件評估業(yè)務(wù)的影響

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.277

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2020年中國區(qū)域2089個地面觀測站資料，分析了1991—2020年和1981—2010年新、舊氣候態(tài)下，平均氣溫、最高氣溫、最低氣溫和降水量等變量的空間變化特征，探討對氣候距平值、極端事件等評估結(jié)果的影響。結(jié)果表明：新氣候態(tài)下，全國三類氣溫年和季節(jié)平均均一致升高，年降水增加，空間上氣溫偏高（低）、降水偏多（少）的特征將弱（強）化；華北東部、華東中部和北部以及青海西南部的年平均風(fēng)速和日照時數(shù)距平增加；極端高溫年減少，低溫年增多，其中平均氣溫和最低氣溫受到的影響較最高氣溫更大；夏季南北方兩條雨帶極端強降水年的發(fā)生概率降低，冬季東北中部和南部、華北、華東北部、西北東部極端弱降水年概率顯著增加；全國超過一半的站點極端日高溫、低溫和強降水事件的歷史頻次發(fā)生改變；新氣候態(tài)還減弱了極端日高溫事件的增速，加快了極端日低溫事件的降速。

關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候態(tài), 氣候變化, 極端事件, 災(zāi)害, 氣候評估

Abstract:

Based on the daily and monthly data of variables such as average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation at 2089 stations in China from 1961 to 2020, and the corresponding climate standard normals in 1981-2010 and 1991-2020, the difference of distribution between the two 30-year climate states were analyzed, followed by the investigation on the impact to the climate anomaly, the probability of extreme years (seasons), and extreme events. Under the new climate state, the three kinds of annual and seasonal temperature elements in China increase congruously, as well as the annual precipitation. Then the regional distribution difference of their corresponding climate anomaly will shrink. The anomaly of average wind speed and sunshine hours increase in the east of North China, the middle and north of East China and the southeast of Qinghai province. The probability of extreme high temperature year decreases and that of extreme low changes oppositely. Compared to the maximum temperature, the average and minimum temperature are more affected. Both of the probabilities of extreme heavy precipitation on the north and south rain belts in summer, and the probability of extreme weak precipitation in the middle and south of Northeast, North, the north of East and the east of Northwest China in winter significantly raise. The historical frequency of daily extreme high temperature, low temperature and heavy precipitation events at more than half of the stations in China has changed. The new climate state also weakens the growth rate of daily extreme high temperature events and accelerates the deceleration of daily extreme low temperature events. In the business, it is necessary to reanalyze extreme years (seasons) and extreme events.

Key words: Climate state, Climate change, Extreme event, Disasters, Climate assessment

梅梅, 侯威, 周星妍. 新、舊氣候態(tài)差異及對中國地區(qū)氣候和極端事件評估業(yè)務(wù)的影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進展, 2022, 18(6): 653-669.

MEI Mei, HOU Wei, ZHOU Xing-Yan. The difference between new and old climate states and its impact on the assessment of climate and extreme event in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 653-669.

圖/表 12

圖1 全國平均氣溫(a)、最高氣溫(b)和最低氣溫(c)新、舊氣候態(tài)平均值的差值注：打點區(qū)域代表新氣候態(tài)減舊氣候態(tài)的差值通過了95%信度水平的t檢驗，下同。

Fig. 1 The differences of the 30-year mean temperatures between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Mean temperature, (b) maximum temperature, (c) minimum temperature. (The dotted areas indicate that the differences between the two periods exceeded the 95% confidence level of t test)

圖2 新、舊氣候態(tài)下全國年降水量(a)、相對濕度(b)、平均風(fēng)速(c)和日照時數(shù)(d)的差值分布

Fig. 2 The differences of the annual variables between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Precipitation, (b) relative humidity, (c) average wind speed, (d) sunshine hours

圖3 全國季節(jié)平均氣溫、最高氣溫、最低氣溫新、舊氣候態(tài)的差值

Fig. 3 The differences of the seasonal average temperatures (a-d), maximum temperatures (e-h), minimum temperatures (i-l) between the new and old climate states over China. (a, e, i) Spring, (b, f, j) summer, (c, g, k) autumn, (d, h, l) winter

圖4 全國季節(jié)降水量新、舊氣候態(tài)的相對變化率分布

Fig. 4 The relative changes of the seasonal precipitation between the old and new climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

圖5 全國季節(jié)平均相對濕度新、舊氣候態(tài)的差值

Fig. 5 The differences of the seasonal relative humidity between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

圖6 全國季節(jié)平均風(fēng)速新、舊氣候態(tài)的差值

Fig. 6 The differences of the seasonal average wind speed between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

圖7 全國季節(jié)累計日照時數(shù)新、舊氣候態(tài)的差值

Fig. 7 The differences of the seasonal sunshine hours between the new and old climate states over China. (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter

圖8 新、舊氣候態(tài)下1961—2020年全國站點極端高(a,c,e)、低(b,d,f)溫年發(fā)生概率的差值

Fig. 8 The differences in probabilities of extreme high (a, c, e) and low (b, d, f) temperatures years between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020. (a, b) Mean temperature, (c, d) maximum temperature, (e, f) minimum temperature

表1 新、舊氣候態(tài)下1961—2020年全國及10個地理分區(qū)歷史極端站年（季）發(fā)生概率的差值

Table 1 The differences of extreme year or season frequencies during 1961-2020

圖9 新、舊氣候態(tài)下1961—2020年全國站點夏季(a,b)、冬季(c,d)極端強(a,c)、弱(b,d)降水發(fā)生概率的差值注：(a)圖中兩條黑色曲線將夏季極端強降水發(fā)生概率變化特征分為三條帶狀區(qū)域。

Fig. 9 The differences in probabilities of extreme more (a, c, e) and less (b, d, f) precipitation seasons between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020. (a, b) Summer, (c, d) winter

圖10 新、舊氣候態(tài)下全國站點極端日高溫(a)、日低溫(b)、日強降水(c)事件閾值之差及概率密度(d,e,f)分布注：(d)、(e)、(f)圖中最高黃柱代表閾值沒有發(fā)生變化的站點占比。

Fig. 10 The differences of daily extreme high (a), low (b) temperatures and heavy precipitation (c) thresholds and their probability densities (d, e, f) between the new and old climate states at the meteorological observation stations over China

圖11 新、舊氣候態(tài)下1961—2020年全國極端事件發(fā)生站次變化

Fig. 11 The differences of daily extreme high (a), low (b) temperatures and heavy precipitation (c) frequency between the new and old climate states over China during 1961-2020

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