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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2008, Vol. 4 ?? Issue (004): 245-249.

      ? 研究短論 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      全球變暖背景下南寧地區(qū)寒潮活動的變化

      陳業(yè)國,何冬燕,農(nóng)孟松   

      1. 廣西區(qū)氣象臺
      • 收稿日期:2007-11-20 修回日期:2008-03-17 出版日期:2008-07-31 發(fā)布日期:2008-07-31
      • 通訊作者: 陳業(yè)國

      Change of Cold Wave in the Nanning Area Under Global Warming

      1. Guangxi Meteorological Observatory
      • Received:2007-11-20 Revised:2008-03-17 Online:2008-07-31 Published:2008-07-31

      摘要: 利用1961-2005年南寧地區(qū)8個氣象觀測站的逐日平均氣溫和最低氣溫資料,分析近45 a南寧地區(qū)寒潮活動的特征及其多年變化特點,并且研究了環(huán)流場異常對寒潮事件發(fā)生頻率的影響。結(jié)果表明,南寧地區(qū)寒潮活動期區(qū)域差異較大:東部開始早,結(jié)束晚;西北部開始晚,結(jié)束早,寒潮出現(xiàn)在12、1和2月。近45 a來,寒潮具有兩次躍變異常,分別發(fā)生在20世紀(jì)70年代前期和90年代后期;寒潮活動總的趨勢是減少的,減少頻數(shù)為0.12次/10 a,這主要與日最低氣溫比較高有關(guān)。此外,針對強(qiáng)寒潮活動年和弱寒潮活動年,給出了500 hPa典型高度距平場特征。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 南寧地區(qū), 寒潮, 全球變暖

      Abstract: Using the daily mean/minimum air temperatures data at 8 weather stations in the Nanning area during 1961-2005, we analyzed the change characteristics of cold wave activity in the Nanning area in recent 45 years and the impact of anomalous circulations on the frequency of the cold wave events affecting Nanning. The results show that the cold wave activity period is different in various areas of the Nanning area, that is, the cold wave activity begins early but ends late in the east, while it begins late but ends early in the northwest. The cold waves occur mainly in December, January and February. Over the past 45 years, cold waves had two abnormal changes in the early 1970s and late 1990s. The general trend of cold wave activity is decreasing at a rate of 0.12 time/10 a. This phenomenon is mainly related to the obvious rise in daily minimum temperature. The typical circulation characteristics for strong/weak cold wave activity years are illustrated with respective composite 500 hPa height anomaly fields.

      Key words: Nanning area, cold wave, global warming

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