1971-2005年中國CO2排放影響因素分析

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2008, Vol. 04 ?? Issue (001): 42-47.

1971-2005年中國CO2排放影響因素分析

馮相昭¹ 王雪臣² 陳紅楓¹

1 中國人民大學(xué) 環(huán)境學(xué)院; 2 中國氣象局

收稿日期:2007-06-08 修回日期:2007-10-08 出版日期:2008-01-30 發(fā)布日期:2008-01-30
通訊作者: 馮相昭

Analysis of Factors Impacting China's CO2 Emissions During 1971-2005

Received:2007-06-08 Revised:2007-10-08 Online:2008-01-30 Published:2008-01-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用Kaya恒等式結合宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟背景的變遷，對1971-2005年期間影響中國CO2排放量的因子展開(kāi)分析。結果表明：經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展和人口的增長(cháng)是CO2排放增加的主要驅動(dòng)因素；能源強度的改善和能源結構的低碳化不僅是減少CO2排放的重要選擇，也對中國實(shí)現"十一五"期間單位GDP能耗降低20%的目標具有重要的現實(shí)意義。

關(guān)鍵詞: Kaya 恒等式, CO2排放, 經(jīng)濟增長(cháng), 能源強度

Abstract: China's CO2 emissions change during 1971-2005 was analyzed by using Kaya identity in combination with the evolution of macroeconomic background. The study indicates that the increase of CO2 emissions is mainly due to rapid economic development and population growth. Meanwhile, improvement of energy intensity and optimization of energy structure are not only the important options in terms of CO2 abatement, but also play an important role in realizing the target of 20% reduction in energy consumption per GDP during the 11th Five-Year Plan.

Key words: Kaya identity, CO2 emission, economic growth, energy intensity, primary energy structure

中圖分類(lèi)號:

X16/F062.2

馮相昭王雪臣陳紅楓. 1971-2005年中國CO2排放影響因素分析[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2008, 04(001): 42-47.

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