基于多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的中國(guó)二氧化碳減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本估計(jì)

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2010, Vol. 6 ?? Issue (02): 130-135.

基于多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的中國(guó)二氧化碳減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本估計(jì)

范英,張曉兵,朱磊

中國(guó)科學(xué)院科技政策與管理科學(xué)研究所

收稿日期:2009-07-23 修回日期:2009-12-04 出版日期:2010-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2010-03-30
通訊作者: 范英

Estimating the Macroeconomic Cost of CO₂ Emission Abatement in China Based on Multi-objective Programming

Received:2009-07-23 Revised:2009-12-04 Online:2010-03-30 Published:2010-03-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： CO₂減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)對(duì)處于不同發(fā)展階段的國(guó)家有著巨大的差異，對(duì)此給出科學(xué)的估計(jì)具有重要的科學(xué)和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文運(yùn)用基于投入產(chǎn)出的多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃對(duì)中國(guó)CO₂減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本進(jìn)行了估算。結(jié)果表明：CO₂排放控制對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響十分顯著，在目前條件下，我國(guó)2010年CO₂減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本為3100～4024元/t CO₂；而且減排的力度越大，相應(yīng)的單位減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本越高。采掘業(yè)、石油行業(yè)、化學(xué)工業(yè)、金屬冶煉等行業(yè)和部門是CO₂的高排放部門，但同時(shí)也是實(shí)現(xiàn)減排較有潛力的部門。

關(guān)鍵詞: CO₂減排, 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本, 多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃, 投入產(chǎn)出分析

Abstract: The macroeconomic cost of CO₂ emission abatement may be greatly different for countries in different development phases. Estimating this cost scientifically is of important scientific and practical significance. This paper estimates the macroeconomic cost of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission abatement in China, employing the input-output analysis with the multi-objective programming approach. The results show that the effect of abating CO₂ emission on China's economy is significant. Under the present conditions, the estimated macroeconomic cost of CO₂ emission abatement for China in 2010 is approximately between 3100 RMB/t and 4024 RMB/t. The stronger the abatement actions are, the higher the macroeconomic cost of per unit emission reduction would be. Mining, oil industry, chemical industry, and metal smelting industry are high CO₂-emission industries, but meanwhile they have more potential to abate their CO₂ emissions.

Key words: CO₂ emission abatement, macroeconomic cost, multi-objective programming, input-output analysis

范英;張曉兵;朱磊. 基于多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的中國(guó)二氧化碳減排的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)成本估計(jì)[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2010, 6(02): 130-135.

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