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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2010, Vol. 6 ?? Issue (03): 187-191.

      ? 氣候系統變化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      北京1951-2008年升溫趨勢和季節變化

      丁海燕,鄭祚芳,劉偉東   

      1. 中國氣象局北京城市氣象研究所
      • 收稿日期:2009-07-21 修回日期:2009-11-02 出版日期:2010-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2010-05-30
      • 通訊作者: 丁海燕

      Warming Trend and Seasonal Variation in Beijing During 1951-2008

      Zheng Zuofang,Liu Wei-dong   

      1. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration
      • Received:2009-07-21 Revised:2009-11-02 Online:2010-05-30 Published:2010-05-30

      摘要: 采用均一化訂正的北京南郊地面日平均氣溫資料,分析了北京地區1951-2008年氣溫變化趨勢。結果表明,年平均最高和最低氣溫的升高呈明顯的不對稱(chēng)性,其中年平均最低氣溫升高較為明顯,升溫趨勢為0.46℃/10a。根據1951-2008年日平均氣溫計算北京春、夏、秋、冬四季的季節長(cháng)度和起始日期,發(fā)現北京地區冬季最長(cháng),秋季最短;夏季在逐漸延長(cháng),冬季在逐漸縮短,夏、冬兩季長(cháng)度變化的線(xiàn)性速率分別為4.4 d/10a和-4.7 d/10a。春、夏兩季逐漸提前,趨勢分別為3.0 d/10a和2.5 d/10a;而秋、冬兩季在逐漸推遲,趨勢分別為2.0 d/10a和1.7 d/10a。將季節起始日期與年平均氣溫進(jìn)行相關(guān)性分析發(fā)現,春、夏兩季的起始時(shí)間與年平均氣溫存在顯著(zhù)負相關(guān),而秋、冬兩季起始時(shí)間與年平均氣溫存在顯著(zhù)正相關(guān)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 升溫趨勢, 季節變化, 年平均氣溫, 北京

      Abstract: The warming trend in Beijing was analyzed based on the homogenized land surface air temperature data at Nanjiao weather observatory during 1951-2008. The analysis shows that the mean maximum and minimum temperatures increased asymmetrically at a rate of 0.26℃/10a and 0.46℃/10a, respectively. It is found that among four seasons winter is the longest season and autumn is the shortest season; summer is getting longer at a rate of 4.4 d/10a, and winter is becoming shorter at a rate of 4.7 d/10a; since 1951 the starting dates of spring and summer have become earlier at a linear rate of 3.0 d/10a and 2.5 d/10a, and on the contrary, the starting dates of autumn and winter have gradually become later at a rate of 2.0 d/10a and 1.7 d/10a respectively. The correlation analysis suggests that the starting dates of spring and summer are significantly negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature; while those of autumn and winter are remarkably positively correlated with the annual mean temperature.

      Key words: warming trend, seasonal variation, annual mean temperature, Beijing

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