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關(guān)鍵詞: 區域氣候模式, 冷事件, 中國南方

Abstract: Multi-decadal climate change simulations have been conducted over China using a regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM3) under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. This paper focuses on future changes in cold events in southern China. The results show that the climate warming will lead to generally less cold days over the study region, but slightly increased consecutive cold days in some local areas of northern parts of Guangdong and Guangxi; and to less snow days and consecutive snow days, but increased intensity of snow events and consequently wider snow coverage over Jiangxi Province and parts of other southern provinces. The day number of ice rain will decrease in Hunan Province and the eastern part of Guizhou Province, while increase around the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.

Key words: regional climate model, cold and snow events, southern China