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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2007, Vol. 03 ?? Issue (04): 187-194.

      ? 研究論文 ?    下一篇

      減緩氣候變化的最新科學(xué)認(rèn)知

      潘家華 孫翠華 鄒驥 周大地 姜克雋 徐華清 張希良 周鳳起 蔡祖聰 郎四維 張小泉 高慶先 張?zhí)熘?孫國(guó)順 段茂盛 楊宏偉 沈永平   

      1. 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院 可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究中心 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)環(huán)境學(xué)院 國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì) 國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì)能源研究所 國(guó)家發(fā)改委能源研究所 能源、環(huán)境與氣候變化研究中心 中國(guó)環(huán)境科學(xué)研究院 清華大學(xué)核能與新能源技術(shù)研究院 國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì) 能源研究所CDM項(xiàng)目管理中心 中國(guó)科學(xué)院 寒區(qū)旱區(qū)環(huán)境與工程研究所
      • 收稿日期:2007-06-06 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2007-07-30
      • 通訊作者: 潘家華

      Updated Scientific Underdtanding of Climate Change Mitigation

      Maosheng DUAN   

      • Received:2007-06-06 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-07-30 Published:2007-07-30

      摘要: 摘 要:2007年5月4日,IPCC第三工作組在泰國(guó)曼谷發(fā)布了第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告《氣候變化2007:減緩氣候變化》的決策者摘要及主報(bào)告。報(bào)告綜合評(píng)估了2001年以來(lái)有關(guān)減緩氣候變化的最新研究成果,考察分析了中短期(2030年前)和長(zhǎng)期(2030年后)溫室氣體的排放情景、減排潛力、成本范圍,以及穩(wěn)定大氣溫室氣體(GHG)濃度水平的可能選擇。報(bào)告總體認(rèn)為,未來(lái)溫室氣體排放取決于發(fā)展路徑的選擇,現(xiàn)有各種技術(shù)手段和許多在2030年以前具有市場(chǎng)可行性的低碳和減排技術(shù),將以較低的成本實(shí)現(xiàn)有效減排;在2030年以后將溫室氣體濃度穩(wěn)定在較低水平的成本并不高,但需要國(guó)際合作,采取一致行動(dòng),并認(rèn)為可持續(xù)發(fā)展與溫室氣體減排可以相互促進(jìn)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 減緩氣候變化, IPCC第三工作組, 第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告, 科學(xué)結(jié)論

      Abstract: Abstract: The Working Group III of the IPCC announced the summary for policy makers and the underlying fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, on 4 May 2007 in Bangkok. This report provides a comprehensive review and state-of-the-art assessment of the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change by updated developments in the literature during the last five years. In the report, examination is made into the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios in the short and medium term (till 2030) and in the long term (beyond 2030), mitigation potential, cost ranges, and possible choices for stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere. In general, a conclusion is drawn in the report that future GHG emissions are highly dependent on development pathways. Many currently available technologies and those that would be commercially viable technologies by 2030 can reduce emissions in a cost effective manner. Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere after 2030 can be kept at relatively low level with comparatively lost cost with respect to their impact on GDP growth. However, greater cooperative efforts are required for effective emissions reduction. Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can be mutually reinforced and synergies are required.

      Key words: mitigation of climate change, IPCC Working Group III, the fourth assessment report, scientific results, updated understanding

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