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氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2008, Vol. 4 ?? Issue (006): 330-335.
王忠靜 鄭航 任國玉 趙建世
摘要: 根據IPCC全球氣候變化情景,分析了石羊河流域未來(lái)可能氣候變化趨勢及其對流域河川徑流量的影響。利用宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟水資源模型,研究了不同徑流變化情景對石羊河流域治理規劃效果的影響。結果表明:若石羊河流域未來(lái)徑流量減少15%,對流域現狀發(fā)展模式和治理模式經(jīng)濟影響將分別為29.8%和7.2%。石羊河綜合治理可提高流域應對氣候變化風(fēng)險的能力,減小氣候變化對流域社會(huì )經(jīng)濟的影響。
關(guān)鍵詞: 石羊河流域, 流域治理, 氣候變化, 影響
Abstract: The Shiyang River Basin (SRB) Comprehensive Restoration Plan is a key strategy for protecting Minqin from desertification. Based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, the trends of future climate changes and their impacts on the runoff of the SRB were analyzed. A water resource macroeconomic model was used to investigate the impacts of different runoff change scenarios on the SRB plan. It shows that if the runoff in the SRB reduces 15% in the future, the economic development (GDP) in present mode and in the restoration mode will be 29.8% and 7.2% lower than the normal, respectively. The comprehensive restoration of the SRB could enhance the capacity of resisting climate change risks, and mitigate climate change impacts on the socio-economy.
Key words: Shiyang River basin, river basin governance, climate change, impacts
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