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      氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2008, Vol. 4 ?? Issue (004): 209-214.

      ? 綜述 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      風能預報方法研究進展

      柳艷香,陶樹旺,張秀芝   

      1. 國家氣候中心
      • 收稿日期:2007-10-17 修回日期:2008-02-20 出版日期:2008-07-31 發(fā)布日期:2008-07-31
      • 通訊作者: 柳艷香

      Review on Methods of Wind Power Forecasting

      1. National Climate Center
      • Received:2007-10-17 Revised:2008-02-20 Online:2008-07-31 Published:2008-07-31

      摘要: 中國蘊含著豐富的風能資源,但目前我國在風能預報方面的研究還很薄弱,幾乎沒有可用于風電場風能的客觀、定量化的預報方法。風能預報,實際上最重要的是對風場的合理準確預報,進而得到風電量預報。通過簡要介紹國際上風能預報的一些方法,如統(tǒng)計預報、動力預報(包括降尺度預報和集成預報)以及風電量預報,同時介紹對預報的檢驗和面向最終用戶的預報平臺的建設,希望能對我國風能預報行業(yè)的發(fā)展起到一定的借鑒和促進作用。

      關鍵詞: 風能, 預報方法, 數值模式, 檢驗

      Abstract: There are abundant wind power sources in China. But, so far, the exploring of wind power forecasting is still weak, and there is almost no objective and quantitative forecasting method available in China. Actually, wind power forecasting means to accurately predict wind speeds and directions in wind farms, and further to forecast wind power. In this paper, we briefly introduce several types of wind power forecasting models, such as statistics, dynamics, downscaling, ensemble wind power forecasting models, and wind power production forecasting models. Meanwhile, we simply introduce wind power prediction verification and user-friendly forecasting platform's construction.

      Key words: wind power, forecasting method, numerical model, verification, prediction platform

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