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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2010, Vol. 6 ?? Issue (06): 411-416.

      ? 氣候系統(tǒng)變化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      1961—2008年內(nèi)蒙古降水極端事件分析

      尤莉1,戴新剛2,張宇3   

      1. 1. 內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)氣候中心
        2. 中科院大氣物理研究所
        3. Atmospheric Observation Technology Center of Inner Mongolia
      • 收稿日期:2010-01-14 修回日期:2010-05-27 出版日期:2010-11-30 發(fā)布日期:2010-12-10
      • 通訊作者: 尤莉 E-mail:nmyouli@163.com
      • 基金資助:
        自然科學(xué)基金

      Extreme Precipitation Events in Inner Mongolia in 1961-2008

      • Received:2010-01-14 Revised:2010-05-27 Online:2010-11-30 Published:2010-12-10
      • Contact: Li You E-mail:nmyouli@163.com

      摘要: 利用內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)116個氣象站1961—2008年逐日降水量資料,以年序列的第90和95個百分位,分別建立了單站日降水量極端氣候事件的閾值,檢測了近48年來內(nèi)蒙古逐日降水量極端事件的出現(xiàn)頻率,分析了極端事件閾值、頻數(shù)及降水量的空間分布和年際、年代際及季節(jié)變化的差異,對比分析了1987年前后極端事件頻次和降水量的變化。結(jié)果顯示:1) 內(nèi)蒙古日降水極端事件的閾值普遍較小,在2.1~23.8 mm之間;全年極端事件出現(xiàn)的頻次在2.4~20.9 d之間;降水極端事件的閾值、頻次、降水量等空間差異十分明顯。2) 近48年來內(nèi)蒙古區(qū)域平均的夏季和全年降水極端事件沒有顯著的增減變化趨勢,但進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)后,7—8月內(nèi)蒙古極端降水事件和極端事件的降水量明顯減少。3) 1987年氣溫顯著升高以后,中部大部地區(qū)和東南部降水極端事件減少,東北部大部和西部增加。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 內(nèi)蒙古, 降水, 極端事件, Inner Mongolia, precipitation, extreme events

      Abstract: Threshold values of extreme precipitation events were determined individually according to the 90th and 95th percentile values of annual daily precipitation series at the 116 meteorological stations of Inner Mongolia during the period 1961-2008. The frequencies, distributive and change characters of extreme precipitation events were examined in recent 48 years. Changes in the frequency and rainfall of extreme precipitation events after the temperature abrupt change in about 1987 were also analyzed. The results show that 1) the threshold values of extreme precipitation events were generally small, within 2.1 and 23.8 mm, the extreme precipitation events occurred 2.4 to 20.9 days in a year, and there were distinctive spatial differences in the distributive character and change of the threshold values, frequencies, and rainfall of extreme precipitation events. 2) Extreme precipitation events in Inner Mongolia whether for summer or for the whole year both showed no obvious trend in recent 48 years. 3) The rainfall of extreme precipitation events decreased in the middle and southeast of Inner Mongolia, but increased in the northeast and west, after the temperature abrupt increase in 1987.

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