中國碳強度的影響因素

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (1): 54-58.

中國碳強度的影響因素

沈小波¹,戴平生²

1. 廈門(mén)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院
2. 廈門(mén)大學(xué)計劃統計系

收稿日期:2010-04-01 修回日期:2010-07-05 出版日期:2011-01-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-01-31
通訊作者: 沈小波 E-mail:xbshen@xmu.edu.cn

Factors Affecting China’s Carbon Intensity

Received:2010-04-01 Revised:2010-07-05 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-31
Contact: Xiao-Bo SHEN E-mail:xbshen@xmu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于自回歸分布滯后模型，分析1980—2007年中國碳強度的主要影響因素。結果表明，碳強度與人均GDP、能源效率、工業(yè)增加值比重之間存在長(cháng)期均衡關(guān)系。能源效率改進(jìn)使碳強度下降，工業(yè)增加值比重上升使碳強度上升。人均GDP與碳強度之間存在倒U型關(guān)系。中國碳強度在20世紀90年代初就達到了轉折點(diǎn)。但是，由于近年來(lái)能源效率下降和工業(yè)比重上升，中國的碳強度又出現反彈。

關(guān)鍵詞: 碳強度, 能源效率, 人均GDP, 工業(yè)增加值比重, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, GDP per capita, proportion of the industrial value of GDP

Abstract: Based on an autoregressively distributed lag model, this study examined the long-term relationship between carbon intensity and energy efficiency, income level and industrial composition in the case of China by employing the data of 1980-2007. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship of China’s carbon intensity with GDP per capita, energy efficiency and industrial value added. Improvement in energy efficiency makes carbon intensity drop, and an increase in the proportion of the industrial value of GDP raises the carbon intensity. There is an inverted-U relationship between carbon intensity and GDP per capita. China reached the turning-point of carbon intensity in early 1990s. But because of a drop in energy efficiency and an increase in industrial proportion of GDP, China’s carbon intensity rebounded again.

沈小波戴平生. 中國碳強度的影響因素[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2011, 7(1): 54-58.

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