烏魯木齊河流域普通民眾對冰凍圈變化的感知及適應性對策選擇

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (1): 65-72.

烏魯木齊河流域普通民眾對冰凍圈變化的感知及適應性對策選擇

鄧茂芝¹,張洪廣²,毛煒繹³,王英巍³

1. 氣象科學(xué)研究院氣候所
2. 中國氣象局黨組辦
3. 中國氣象局科技與氣候變化司

收稿日期:2010-05-19 修回日期:2010-08-03 出版日期:2011-01-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-01-31
通訊作者: 鄧茂芝 E-mail:dmz@cma.gov.cn

Public Perception on the Cryosphere Changes and Selections of Adaptation Measures in U¨ru¨mqi River Basin

Received:2010-05-19 Revised:2010-08-03 Online:2011-01-30 Published:2011-01-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于烏魯木齊河流域普通民眾對氣候變化及冰凍圈變化感知情況的問(wèn)卷調查，結合有關(guān)監測研究結果，分析了普通民眾對流域氣候變化及冰凍圈變化的感知情況，探討了環(huán)境變化對流域水資源和農業(yè)生產(chǎn)的可能影響。普通民眾對氣候變化和冰凍圈變化的感知基本與科學(xué)監測事實(shí)相符。對氣候變化和冰凍圈變化條件下普通民眾對水資源緊缺的適應措施的分析發(fā)現：1）普通民眾傾向于選擇“制度”的改變和基礎設施建設等以政府或決策部門(mén)為主導的適應性措施；2）對主動(dòng)避開(kāi)不利的自然環(huán)境有較大的傾向性，如外出打工或遷居；3）普通民眾對親身參與到適應措施中來(lái)的緊迫性認識仍然不足；4）一些適應措施的實(shí)施需要因地制宜，“開(kāi)源”要與“節流”有機結合。

Abstract: Based on the questionnaires concerning general public apprehension on climate and cryosphere changes in the Urumqi River basin, this paper attempted to explain the characteristics of the public perception, reasons for the similarities, differences with reported scientific conclusions and potential impacts of environment changes on water resources and agricultural production. The paper also analyzed public choice of adaptation measures, with conclusions as follows: 1) the public tend to choose adaptation measures such as system changes and infrastructure construction which were generally led by government or decision-making authorities; 2) the public tend to take initiatives to avoid the adverse natural environment, such as simply relocating their residence; 3) the public perception on the urgent situation of participating in adaptation measures is still insufficient; 4) implementation of such adaptation measures should be in accordance with local conditions, and require the integration of “open source” and “cost-cutting” measures as well.

鄧茂芝張洪廣毛煒繹王英巍. 烏魯木齊河流域普通民眾對冰凍圈變化的感知及適應性對策選擇[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2011, 7(1): 65-72.

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