国产综合在线观看视频,国产精品原创视频,亚洲国产熟亚洲女视频,一级风流片a级国产

       

      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (2): 90-96.

      ? 氣候系統變化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      南極臭氧洞的影響因子和變化趨勢

      卞林根,林忠,鄭向東,馬永鋒,陸龍驊   

      1. 中國氣象科學(xué)研究院
      • 收稿日期:2010-08-10 修回日期:2010-09-27 出版日期:2011-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-04-07
      • 通訊作者: 卞林根 E-mail:blg@cams.cma.gov.cn

      Trend of Antarctic Ozone Hole and Its Influencing Factors

      • Received:2010-08-10 Revised:2010-09-27 Online:2011-03-30 Published:2011-04-07

      摘要: 利用衛星和臺站觀(guān)測的南極臭氧資料和NCEP/NCAR再分析資料,分析了南極臭氧近年來(lái)的變化特征和影響因子,探討了南極臭氧洞期間中山站臭氧突變過(guò)程與大氣動(dòng)力的作用。結果顯示,平流層氯和溴的鹵化物當量(EESC)和平流層溫度是影響南極臭氧洞面積的關(guān)鍵因子。臭氧總量與EESC和平流層溫度均具有顯著(zhù)相關(guān),表明兩站雖然都位于臭氧洞邊緣,EESC和平流層溫度對臭氧總量的變化仍然可以起決定性的作用,同時(shí)也驗證了EESC參數在東南極大陸沿岸具有適用性。 EESC的年代際變化與臭氧變化趨勢相似,臭氧的年際變化與平流層溫度關(guān)系密切。回歸結果表明,2010年后臭氧洞面積逐漸減小,在2070年左右可能恢復到1980年前的水平,但其結果存在很大的不確定性。

      Abstract: Influencing factors, and variations and trends of Antarctic ozone hole in recent decades are analyzed, and sudden change processes of ozone at Zhongshan Station and the effect of atmospheric dynamic processes on ozone changes are also discussed by using the satellite ozone data and the ground-measured ozone data at two Antarctic stations as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and stratospheric temperature are two important factors influencing the ozone hole. The column ozone at Zhongshan and Syowa stations is significantly related to EESC and stratospheric temperature, which means that even though the two stations are both located on the edge of the ozone hole, EESC and stratospheric temperature still plays a very important role in column ozone changes, and mean while verifies that EESC is applicable on the coast of east Antarctic continent. Decadal changes in EESC are similar to those of the ozone hole, and interannual variations of ozone are closely related with stratospheric temperature. Based on the relation of EESC and ozone hole size, it can be projected that the ozone hole size will gradually reduce to the 1980’s level from 2010 to around 2070. Of course there might exist many uncertainties in the projection, which therefore needs to be further studied.

      京ICP備11008704號-4
      版權所有 © 《氣候變化研究進(jìn)展》編輯部
      地址:北京市海淀區中關(guān)村南大街46號 郵編:100081 電話(huà)/傳真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
      本系統由北京瑪格泰克科技發(fā)展有限公司設計開(kāi)發(fā) 技術(shù)支持:support@magtech.com.cn