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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (2): 110-118.

      ? 氣候系統變化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      喜馬拉雅山區1951—2010年氣候變化事實(shí)分析

      張東啟1,效存德1,劉偉剛2,3   

      1. 1. 中國氣象科學(xué)研究院
        2.
        3. 中國氣象局蘭州干旱氣象研究所
      • 收稿日期:2011-09-19 修回日期:2011-11-16 出版日期:2012-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-03-30
      • 通訊作者: 張東啟 E-mail:zhangdq@cams.cma.gov.cn
      • 基金資助:
        國家重點(diǎn)基礎研究發(fā)展計劃;國家自然科學(xué)基金

      Analysis on Himalayan Climate Change in 1951-2010

      • Received:2011-09-19 Revised:2011-11-16 Online:2012-03-30 Published:2012-03-30

      摘要: 選擇喜馬拉雅山南北兩側有代表性的13個(gè)氣象站1951—2010年的氣溫、降水資料,分析這些臺站氣候變化總體趨勢、年代際變化及突變特征,結果表明:1961—2010年整個(gè)喜馬拉雅山區的氣溫總體呈顯著(zhù)上升趨勢,平均升溫速率為0.38℃/10a。1970—1990年代升溫在加速,2000年代升溫速率則有所放緩。中段地區各站在2000年左右發(fā)生一次顯著(zhù)的升溫突變,而西段和東段雖都出現升溫突變,但出現的時(shí)間差異較大。1971—2010年喜馬拉雅山區的降水在西段呈減少趨勢,中段、東段大致呈現出微弱增加趨勢,但總體變化趨勢不明顯。降水的年代際變化也表現為1970—1990年代略有增加,2000年代則有所減少。降水突變在西段以減少為主,在中段和東段以增加為主,但各站發(fā)生突變的年代很不一致。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 喜馬拉雅山區, 氣候變化, 氣溫, 降水, Himalayas, climate change, temperature, precipitation

      Abstract: Using the temperature and precipitation data of 1951-2010 at 13 representative weather observation stations on the southern and northern slopes of the Himalayas, climate trends, decadal variation characteristics and abrupt changes were analyzed. Remarkable increasing trends of annual temperatures were detected and the linear warming trend over 1961-2010 was 0.38℃/10a. The decadal temperature increasing rate accelerated from the 1970s to 1990s, but slowed down in the 2000s. A noteworthy abrupt climatic warming appeared in the central Himalayas around 2000, and an abrupt warming change also occurred in the western and eastern sections of the Himalayas but in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. The precipitation exhibited a slight decline trend in the western section of the Himalayas but a weak rise trend in the central and eastern sections in 1971-2010, and on the whole, there was no obvious trend in precipitation. The decadal precipitation increased a little bit from the 1970s to 1990s but decreased slightly over the 2000s. The decadal precipitation showed an abrupt decline change mainly in western Himalayas, and an abrupt rise change mainly in the central and eastern sections although those abrupt changes occurred in different decades.

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