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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (2): 84-89.

      ? IPCC《管理極端事件和災害風(fēng)險,推進(jìn)氣候變化適應》特別報告專(zhuān)欄 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      災害風(fēng)險的決定因素及其管理

      尹姍1,孫誠2,李建平3   

      1. 1. 中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所 大氣科學(xué)和地球流體力學(xué)數值模擬國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室
        2. 中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所
        3. 中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所大氣科學(xué)和地球流體力學(xué)數值模擬國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室(LASG)
      • 收稿日期:2012-02-27 修回日期:2012-03-03 出版日期:2012-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-03-30
      • 通訊作者: 李建平 E-mail:ljp@lasg.iap.ac.cn
      • 基金資助:
        國家973計劃項目;中國科學(xué)院戰略性先導科技專(zhuān)項子課題

      Determinants of Disaster Risk and Disaster Risk Management

      • Received:2012-02-27 Revised:2012-03-03 Online:2012-03-30 Published:2012-03-30

      摘要: 災害風(fēng)險的影響不僅由災害本身決定,更取決于風(fēng)險的決定因素——暴露度和脆弱性。暴露度和脆弱性是動(dòng)態(tài)的、多維度的。高暴露度和脆弱性是不平衡發(fā)展的結果。在氣候變化的背景下,只有正確認識暴露度和脆弱性的維度,重視風(fēng)險溝通和風(fēng)險累積,選擇適當的方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評估,才能設計和實(shí)施有效的災害風(fēng)險管理戰略以適應長(cháng)期氣候變化。在致力于降低、轉移和分擔風(fēng)險的同時(shí),還要對災害風(fēng)險進(jìn)行防御和響應,提高對不斷變化的風(fēng)險的恢復力。通過(guò)使用這些整合的災害風(fēng)險管理方法,災害風(fēng)險管理決策與應對措施會(huì )限制暴露度和脆弱性,使氣候變化適應成為可能。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 暴露度, 脆弱性, 災害風(fēng)險管理, 適應, exposure, vulnerability, disaster risk management, adaption

      Abstract: The impacts of disaster risk not only are determined by hazard events, but also depend on the determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic and multi-dimensional. High exposure and vulnerability are generally the outcome of skewed development processes. In the context of climate change, designing and implementing effective disaster risk management strategies to adapt to longer-term climate change need to understand dimensions of exposure and vulnerability rigorously, pay attention to risk communication and risk accumulation, and choose reliable methodologies for risk assessment. While aiming to reduce, transfer and share risk, it is also important to prepare for and respond to disaster risk, and increase resilience to changing risk. By using these integrative disaster risk management approaches, disaster risk management decisions and corresponding measures can constrain exposure and vulnerability and enable future climate change adaption.

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