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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (2): 79-83.

      ? IPCC《管理極端事件和災害風(fēng)險,推進(jìn)氣候變化適應》特別報告專(zhuān)欄 ?    下一篇

      從氣候變化的新視角理解災害風(fēng)險、暴露度、脆弱性和恢復力

      鄭菲1,孫誠1,李建平2   

      1. 1. 中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所
        2. 中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所大氣科學(xué)和地球流體力學(xué)數值模擬國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室(LASG)
      • 收稿日期:2012-02-23 修回日期:2012-03-02 出版日期:2012-03-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-03-30
      • 通訊作者: 李建平 E-mail:ljp@lasg.iap.ac.cn
      • 基金資助:
        國家973計劃項目‘亞洲區域海陸氣相互作用機理及其在全球變化中的作用’;中國科學(xué)院戰略性先導科技專(zhuān)項子課題“關(guān)鍵海區海氣相互作用對中國百年氣候的影響”

      Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience

      • Received:2012-02-23 Revised:2012-03-02 Online:2012-03-30 Published:2012-03-30

      摘要: 不斷變化的氣候可導致前所未有的極端天氣和氣候事件。這些事件能否構成災害,在很大程度上取決于脆弱性和暴露度水平。雖然無(wú)法完全消除各種災害風(fēng)險,但災害風(fēng)險管理和氣候變化適應的重點(diǎn)是減少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高對各種潛在極端事件不利影響的恢復力,從而促進(jìn)社會(huì )和經(jīng)濟的可持續發(fā)展。全面的災害風(fēng)險管理要求更加合理地分配對減災、災害管理等方面所付出的努力。過(guò)去的主流是強調災害管理,但目前減災成為關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)和挑戰。這種主動(dòng)積極的災害風(fēng)險管理與適應有助于避免未來(lái)的風(fēng)險和災害,而不僅僅是減少已有的風(fēng)險和災害,同時(shí)這也是災害風(fēng)險管理和氣候變化適應更加緊密聯(lián)系的一個(gè)背景。災害風(fēng)險管理促進(jìn)氣候變化適應從應對當前的影響中汲取經(jīng)驗,而氣候變化適應幫助災害風(fēng)險管理更加有效地應對未來(lái)變化的條件。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候變化, 極端事件, 災害風(fēng)險, 暴露度, 脆弱性, 恢復力, climate change, extreme events, disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, resilience

      Abstract: A Changing climate can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events. The possibility of these events leading to disasters depends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure. Although risks cannot fully be eliminated, both disaster risk management and adaption to climate change focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure, as well as increasing resilience to the potential adverse impacts of extreme events, thus promoting sustainability in social and economic development. A more comprehensive disaster risk management raises challenges for the proper allocation of efforts among disaster risk reduction, disaster management, and so on. Disaster risk reduction becomes emphasis of concern currently as opposed to mainstream historical disaster management. This prospective disaster risk management and adaption can contribute to avoiding future, and not just reducing existing risk and disaster, and provide a background for closer integration of disaster risk management and adaption to climate change. Disaster risk management can help those practicing adaption to climate change to learn from addressing current impacts, and adaption to climate change can help those practicing disaster risk management to more effectively address future conditions that will differ from those of today.

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