基于ECHAM5模式預估2050年前中國旱澇格局趨勢

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2009, Vol. 5 ?? Issue (04): 220-225.

基于ECHAM5模式預估2050年前中國旱澇格局趨勢

翟建青¹,曾小凡²,蘇布達³,姜彤³

1. 中國科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所2. 中國科學(xué)院南京地理與湖泊研究所3. 中國氣象局國家氣候中心

收稿日期:2008-12-01 修回日期:2009-01-12 出版日期:2009-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2009-07-30
通訊作者: 翟建青

Patterns of Dryness/Wetness in China Before 2050 Projected by the ECHAM5 Model

Xiaofan Zeng¹,Su Buda²

1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences2. National Climate Center

Received:2008-12-01 Revised:2009-01-12 Online:2009-07-30 Published:2009-07-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM氣候模式輸出的2001-2050年逐月降水量資料，考慮IPCC采用的3種排放情景（A2：溫室氣體高排放情景；A1B:溫室氣體中排放情景；B1：溫室氣體低排放情景），計算其標準化降水指數,分析了中國2050年前3種排放情景下的旱澇格局。結果表明：3種情景下旱澇趨勢空間分布不同，其中A2情景下旱澇格局同1961-2000年觀(guān)測到的旱澇格局相似，均存在一條由東北向西南的干旱帶；而A1B和B1情景下旱澇格局則發(fā)生了很大的變化，尤其B1情景下出現了"北澇南旱"的格局。未來(lái)50 a干旱面積在A(yíng)2情景下呈略增加趨勢；A1B和B1情景下為減少趨勢。3種情景下干旱頻率的空間分布也各不相同。

關(guān)鍵詞: 旱澇格局, 標準化降水指數（SPI）, ECHAM5/MPI-OM氣候模式, 排放情景

Abstract: This study investigated future spatial distribution of dryness/wetness in China during the first 50 years of 21st century according to standardized precipitation index (SPI) which was calculated from the monthly precipitation data projected by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model under the SRES-A2 (high emission), SRES-A1B (mediate emission) and SRES-B1 (low emission) scenarios of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results show that the projected dryness/wetness pattern in the future 50 years under the SRES-A2 scenario is similar to the observed one in 1961-2000, i.e. there is a SW-NE oriented drought belt from Southwest China to Northeast China; but the projected patterns under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios are different, especially under the SRES-B1 scenario, a north-wetness-south-dryness pattern was projected. The area of drought was projected to weakly increase under the SRES-A2 scenario but to decline under the SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 scenarios. Spatial distributions of the frequency of droughts were also projected to be different from each other.

Key words: dryness/wetness pattern, standardized precipitation index (SPI), ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model, emission scenario, China

翟建青;曾小凡;蘇布達;姜彤. 基于ECHAM5模式預估2050年前中國旱澇格局趨勢[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2009, 5(04): 220-225.

Xiaofan Zeng;Su Buda. Patterns of Dryness/Wetness in China Before 2050 Projected by the ECHAM5 Model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2009, 5(04): 220-225.

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