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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2009, Vol. 5 ?? Issue (05): 260-265.

      ? 研究論文 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      以樹(shù)輪寬度重建秦嶺中段分水嶺地區1-7月平均氣溫

      劉禹,劉娜,宋慧明,蔡秋芳,包光,王偉平   

      1. 中國科學(xué)院地球環(huán)境研究所
      • 收稿日期:2009-02-16 修回日期:2009-03-27 出版日期:2009-09-30 發(fā)布日期:2009-09-30
      • 通訊作者: 劉禹

      Reconstructed Mean Air Temperature from January to July at the Divide Sampling Site in the Mid-Qinling Mountains with Tree-Ring Widths

      • Received:2009-02-16 Revised:2009-03-27 Online:2009-09-30 Published:2009-09-30

      摘要: 根據秦嶺中段分水嶺地區秦嶺落葉松樹(shù)輪寬度指標,建立了該地區1814-2003年的樹(shù)輪標準化年表。分析表明,該地標準化年表與當年1-7月平均氣溫顯著(zhù)相關(guān)。在此基礎上設計轉換方程,利用多元回歸技術(shù)重建了秦嶺中段分水嶺地區的1-7月平均氣溫,重建序列的方差解釋量為41.2% (F=15.062, p<0.0001),重建序列顯示在過(guò)去190 a中氣溫較低的時(shí)段主要有1814-1850年和1876-1889年;偏暖期主要有1851-1875年和1890-1933年;而1934-1990年這一時(shí)期氣溫變化幅度較小,氣溫相對比較穩定;1990年之后升溫明顯。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 秦嶺中段, 分水嶺, 樹(shù)輪寬度, 溫度重建

      Abstract: A tree-ring width chronology has been built from Larix chinensis at the divide sampling site in the mid-Qinling Mountains from 1814 to 2003. The calculation results show that standardization (STD) chronology was significantly correlated with the mean air temperature from January to July. The mean January-July temperature at the sampling site was reconstructed by using the multiple regression method, and the explained variance of the function was 41% (F=15.062, p<0.0001). Two cold periods in the past 190 years were found in 1814-1850, and 1876-1889, and two warm periods from 1851-1875, and 1890-1933, respectively. The reconstructed temperature was relatively stable from the early 1930s to 1990, but increased quickly after 1990.

      Key words: mid-Qinling Mountains, divide, tree-ring width, air temperature reconstruction

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