中國冬半年最低氣溫概率分布特征

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2008, Vol. 04 ?? Issue (001): 8-11.

中國冬半年最低氣溫概率分布特征

魏鳳英

中國氣象科學(xué)研究院

收稿日期:2007-09-07 修回日期:2007-09-28 出版日期:2008-01-30 發(fā)布日期:2008-01-30
通訊作者: 魏鳳英

Probability Distribution of Minimum Temperature in Winter Half Years in China

WEI fengying

Received:2007-09-07 Revised:2007-09-28 Online:2008-01-30 Published:2008-01-30
Contact: WEI fengying

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根據(jù)1955-2005年中國160個(gè)站冬半年 (當(dāng)年11月至翌年4月)平均最低氣溫資料，使用統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)的方法，分析了近50 a中國冬半年最低氣溫的突變事實(shí)，在此基礎(chǔ)上給出了氣候變暖前后最低氣溫的概率分布，比較了變暖前后時(shí)段全國最低氣溫空間分布的差異。結(jié)果表明：1) 20世紀(jì)80年代末中國冬半年最低氣溫發(fā)生了顯著突變，進(jìn)入異常增暖時(shí)期，其增溫程度比平均氣溫明顯；2) 增暖后中國最低氣溫的概率分布發(fā)生了明顯的變化，最低氣溫偏冷的概率顯著減小，偏暖的概率明顯增大；3)氣候變暖后除西南地區(qū)最低氣溫上升幅度不顯著外，其余地區(qū)均呈現(xiàn)顯著增溫趨勢(shì)。

關(guān)鍵詞: 冬半年, 最低氣溫, 概率分布, 增溫趨勢(shì)

Abstract: Based on the winter half year (from November to the April of next year) minimum temperature data at 160 stations in China during 1955-2005, by using Mann-Kendall statistic test the abrupt changes in the minimum temperature were analyzed. The probability distributions of the minimum temperature series for the colder period (1955/1956-1988/1989) and warmer period (1989/1990-2004/2005) were given and the spatial differences of the minimum temperature between the two climatic periods were also compared. The results show that: 1) the significant rising of minimum temperature occurred in the end of the 1980s, and the rising amplitude was larger than that of mean temperature; 2) after the warming the probability of lower minimum temperature has apparently reduced and that of higher minimum temperature increased; 3) statistically, the rising trends of the minimum temperature were all significant over most regions in China except those in Southwest China.

Key words: winter half year, minimum temperature, probability distribution, warming trend, China

中圖分類號(hào):

P423.3+6

魏鳳英. 中國冬半年最低氣溫概率分布特征[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2008, 04(001): 8-11.

WEI fengying. Probability Distribution of Minimum Temperature in Winter Half Years in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2008, 04(001): 8-11.

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