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氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (2): 79-83.
? IPCC《管理極端事件和災(zāi)害風(fēng)險,推進(jìn)氣候變化適應(yīng)》特別報告專欄 ? 下一篇
鄭菲1,孫誠1,李建平2
摘要: 不斷變化的氣候可導(dǎo)致前所未有的極端天氣和氣候事件。這些事件能否構(gòu)成災(zāi)害,在很大程度上取決于脆弱性和暴露度水平。雖然無法完全消除各種災(zāi)害風(fēng)險,但災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理和氣候變化適應(yīng)的重點是減少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高對各種潛在極端事件不利影響的恢復(fù)力,從而促進(jìn)社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。全面的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理要求更加合理地分配對減災(zāi)、災(zāi)害管理等方面所付出的努力。過去的主流是強(qiáng)調(diào)災(zāi)害管理,但目前減災(zāi)成為關(guān)注焦點和挑戰(zhàn)。這種主動積極的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理與適應(yīng)有助于避免未來的風(fēng)險和災(zāi)害,而不僅僅是減少已有的風(fēng)險和災(zāi)害,同時這也是災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理和氣候變化適應(yīng)更加緊密聯(lián)系的一個背景。災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理促進(jìn)氣候變化適應(yīng)從應(yīng)對當(dāng)前的影響中汲取經(jīng)驗,而氣候變化適應(yīng)幫助災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理更加有效地應(yīng)對未來變化的條件。
關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候變化, 極端事件, 災(zāi)害風(fēng)險, 暴露度, 脆弱性, 恢復(fù)力, climate change, extreme events, disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, resilience
Abstract: A Changing climate can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events. The possibility of these events leading to disasters depends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure. Although risks cannot fully be eliminated, both disaster risk management and adaption to climate change focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure, as well as increasing resilience to the potential adverse impacts of extreme events, thus promoting sustainability in social and economic development. A more comprehensive disaster risk management raises challenges for the proper allocation of efforts among disaster risk reduction, disaster management, and so on. Disaster risk reduction becomes emphasis of concern currently as opposed to mainstream historical disaster management. This prospective disaster risk management and adaption can contribute to avoiding future, and not just reducing existing risk and disaster, and provide a background for closer integration of disaster risk management and adaption to climate change. Disaster risk management can help those practicing adaption to climate change to learn from addressing current impacts, and adaption to climate change can help those practicing disaster risk management to more effectively address future conditions that will differ from those of today.
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