碳稅政策的減排效果與經(jīng)濟(jì)影響

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (3): 210-216.

碳稅政策的減排效果與經(jīng)濟(jì)影響

周晟呂¹,石敏俊¹,李娜²,袁永娜²

1. 中國科學(xué)院虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)研究中心
2.

收稿日期:2010-10-08 修回日期:2010-11-04 出版日期:2011-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-05-31
通訊作者: 周晟呂 E-mail:zhuan85@163.com;zhuan85@hotmail.com
基金資助:
自然科學(xué)基金

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO₂ Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

Received:2010-10-08 Revised:2010-11-04 Online:2011-05-30 Published:2011-05-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用基于動態(tài)可計(jì)算一般均衡模型（CGE）構(gòu)建的能源－環(huán)境－經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，模擬了在考慮能源利用效率提高的基礎(chǔ)上，不同碳稅稅率以及碳稅收入使用方式的減排效果及對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。結(jié)果表明，與基準(zhǔn)情景相比，如果碳稅收入直接歸政府所有，征收30、60、90元/t CO₂碳稅，2020年的減排率分別為5.56%、10.45%和14.74%，GDP損失率分別為0.04%、0.10%和0.18%。征收碳稅可實(shí)現(xiàn)的減排量，分別相當(dāng)于實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年CO₂排放強(qiáng)度比2005年下降40%的目標(biāo)所需減排量的9.9%、18.6%和26.2%。將碳稅收入返還給企業(yè)和居民，能在一定程度上緩解對企業(yè)和居民的負(fù)面影響。

Abstract: This paper aimed to examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO₂ mitigation and economic growth in China by using an energy-environment-economic model based on dynamic CGE model. The results show that, 30, 60 and 90 yuan RMB/t CO₂ of carbon tax rate may lead to a reduction of CO₂ emission by 5.56%, 10.45%, 14.74% and GDP loss rate by 0.04%, 0.10%, 0.18% respectively in 2020 if carbon tax revenues belong to the government. The emission reductions contribute 9.9%, 18.6%, 26.2% to the target that Chinese CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP will reduce by 40% by 2020, from 2005 levels. Negative impacts to enterprise and household will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are recycled to them.

周晟呂石敏俊李娜袁永娜. 碳稅政策的減排效果與經(jīng)濟(jì)影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2011, 7(3): 210-216.

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