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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (3): 217-223.

      ? 調(diào)查研究 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      吉林省敦化市鄉(xiāng)村人群氣候變化感知的偏差及群體分異研究

      田青1,姚冬萍2,蘇桂武3,劉健4,謝今范5   

      1. 1. 北京師范大學(xué)
        2.
        3. 中國地震局地質(zhì)所
        4. 北京師范大學(xué)環(huán)境教育中心
        5. 吉林省氣候中心
      • 收稿日期:2010-07-22 修回日期:2011-01-13 出版日期:2011-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-05-31
      • 通訊作者: 田青 E-mail:green@bnu.edu.cn
      • 基金資助:
        批準(zhǔn)號:40971274;40501026

      Rural People’s Perception Deviation on Climate Change and Population’s Differences in Dunhua City, Jilin Province

      • Received:2010-07-22 Revised:2011-01-13 Online:2011-05-30 Published:2011-05-31
      • Contact: TIAN Qing E-mail:green@bnu.edu.cn

      摘要: 通過問卷調(diào)查,具體分析了吉林省敦化市鄉(xiāng)村人群對氣候變化趨勢和極端冷暖年的感知偏差及人群分異。發(fā)現(xiàn)鄉(xiāng)村人群對氣候變化趨勢的感知與科學(xué)事實(shí)比較符合,由于對變暖轉(zhuǎn)折年代更敏感,因而對變暖的確認(rèn)度在一些時(shí)段與科學(xué)事實(shí)在變化程度或幅度上存在比較大的偏差。鄉(xiāng)村人群對極端冷暖年不如對趨勢感知的準(zhǔn)確度高。經(jīng)驗(yàn)積累影響鄉(xiāng)村人群對氣候變化趨勢感知準(zhǔn)確度,成長經(jīng)歷影響鄉(xiāng)村人群對極端冷暖年感知的準(zhǔn)確度。建議政府對氣候變化教育有專門投入,在應(yīng)對氣候趨勢的變化和極端冷暖年變化方面,總結(jié)關(guān)鍵人群在糧食種植行為上取得的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn),以教育方式為關(guān)鍵人群提供分享這些案例的機(jī)會,服務(wù)于提高鄉(xiāng)村人群適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力建設(shè)目標(biāo)。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候變化感知, 鄉(xiāng)村人群, 人群分異, 氣候變化趨勢, 極端冷暖年, 感知偏差, perception to climate change, rural people, population difference, climate trend, extreme cold/warm years, perception deviation

      Abstract: This research investigated the perception deviation and population differences on climate trend as well as extreme cold /warm years through questionnaire survey among rural populations in Dunhua City, Jilin Province. The results indicate that the rural people’s perception on climate trend agrees well with scientific measurements. Higher sensitivity to the transitional year of warming leads to greater deviation on the confirmation in warming years at some time intervals. The perception of climate trend is more accurate than that of extreme cold/warm years. The experience affects rural people’s perception accuracy to climate trend, and the growth experience affects their perception accuracy to extreme cold/warm years. Therefore, the government needs to earmark funds to climate change education. The education should provide the concerned and key people the cases of people’s experience and lessons on how to respond to climate trend and extreme climate year on the grain-growing around the cold and warm transitional year, to improve people’s capacity to adapt to climate change.

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