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      氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (3): 189-196.

      ? 氣候系統(tǒng)變化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      北京1960—2008年氣候變暖及極端氣溫指數(shù)變化特征

      鄭祚芳,丁海燕,范水勇   

      1. 中國氣象局北京城市氣象研究所
      • 收稿日期:2010-07-21 修回日期:2010-09-26 出版日期:2011-05-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-05-31
      • 通訊作者: 鄭祚芳 E-mail:zfzheng@ium.cn

      Characteristics of Climate Warming and Extreme Temperature Indices in Beijing over 1960-2008

      • Received:2010-07-21 Revised:2010-09-26 Online:2011-05-30 Published:2011-05-31
      • Contact: Zheng Zuofang E-mail:zfzheng@ium.cn

      摘要: 應(yīng)用均一化逐日氣象觀測資料,分析了北京地區(qū)1960—2008年氣候變暖及主要極端氣溫指數(shù)的統(tǒng)計特征。結(jié)果表明:近49年來北京年平均氣溫增溫速率約為0.39℃/10a,最高、最低氣溫變化具有明顯的非對稱性。霜凍日數(shù)和氣溫年較差呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,暖夜指數(shù)及熱浪指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,除氣溫年較差外,其他極端氣溫指數(shù)的氣候變率均在加大。北京年平均氣溫及極端氣溫指數(shù)主要存在21年、15~17年及準(zhǔn)10年周期特征。年平均氣溫與極端氣溫指數(shù)之間存在較強相關(guān)性,氣候變暖突變發(fā)生前后某些極端氣溫指數(shù)發(fā)生頻率表現(xiàn)出明顯差異。自1980年起,北京市區(qū)極端最高氣溫及其增溫率明顯高于近郊和遠郊,高溫日數(shù)市區(qū)多于近郊,近郊多于遠郊;近、遠郊極端最低氣溫溫差高于城、近郊溫差。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 氣候變暖, 極端氣溫指數(shù), 變化趨勢, 北京, climate warming, extreme temperature indices, trend, Beijing

      Abstract: Using the homogenized temperature data series in the period 1960-2008, the characteristics of climate warming and variations of extreme temperature indices in Beijing were analyzed. Results indicate that the increase rate of annual mean temperature were 0.39℃/10a, and the mean maximum and minimum temperatures changed asymmetrically, indicating that the climate warming were mainly caused by minimum temperature increasing. The climate base state indices of frost days (FD) and extreme temperature range (ETR) declined, warm nights (TN90) and heat wave duration index (HWDI) increased, and most of extreme temperature indices exhibited high variability except for the ETR index. Morlet wavelet transform shows that the main periods for mean annual temperature and extreme temperature indices were about 21, 15-17, and 10 years. There were a close correlation between annual mean temperature and extreme temperature indices. Since 1980, extreme high temperature, and high temperature days have increased more in urban areas than in suburbs and exurbs, while extreme low temperature and low temperature days have decreased more in urban areas and suburbs than in exurbs. The above results suggest that the variations in extreme temperatures in Beijing have been obviously affected by its urbanization process.

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