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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (4): 294-300.

      ? 對策論壇 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      后京都時(shí)期LULUCF潛在核算規則分析

      劉碩1,李玉娥2,高清竹2,萬(wàn)運帆3,3,馬欣1,秦曉波2   

      1. 1. 中國農業(yè)科學(xué)院農業(yè)環(huán)境與可持續發(fā)展研究所
        2. 中國農業(yè)科研究院
        3.
      • 收稿日期:2010-11-22 修回日期:2011-01-19 出版日期:2011-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2010-07-30
      • 通訊作者: 劉碩 E-mail:liush@ami.ac.cn
      • 基金資助:
        國家“973”氣候專(zhuān)項關(guān)于“土地利用、土地利用變化和林業(yè)”談判問(wèn)題研究

      Analysis of LULUCF Accounting Rules for Post-Kyoto

      • Received:2010-11-22 Revised:2011-01-19 Online:2011-07-30 Published:2010-07-30

      摘要: 《京都議定書(shū)》附件一締約方國家通過(guò)土地利用、土地利用變化和林業(yè)(LULUCF)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的碳匯減輕自身減排壓力,為國內工業(yè)能源部門(mén)碳排放提供空間。但LULUCF包括的核算活動(dòng)類(lèi)型和具體方法一直是各方爭論的焦點(diǎn),其中木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品、不可抗力等自然干擾、參考水平閾值的設置以及總-凈與凈-凈核算方式的選擇這幾方面核算漏洞很多,矛盾尤為突出。為防止發(fā)達國家過(guò)分依賴(lài)LULUCF產(chǎn)生的碳匯減輕減排壓力,搜集了歐盟27國、加拿大、日本、俄羅斯等發(fā)達國家提交的LULUCF數據,分析了核算漏洞對LULUCF核算結果可能產(chǎn)生的影響。結果表明:木質(zhì)林產(chǎn)品活動(dòng)的核算方法不確定性較多;剔除自然干擾等不可抗力后,LULUCF活動(dòng)碳匯至少增加30%;參考水平閾值適于設置在較高碳匯水平;凈-凈核算方式更適用于后京都時(shí)代LULUCF核算規則。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 后京都時(shí)代, LULUCF, 核算規則, post-Kyoto, LULUCF, accounting methods

      Abstract: Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) could allow Annex I parties in the Kyoto Protocol to release their carbon emission reduction pressure, comparably expanding more emission space for their domestic industry and energy field. LULUCF activity types and specific accounting methods were always argued among different parties, where several accounting loopholes conflicted fiercely, particularly including harvest wood product, force majeure, reference level threshold value and gross-net and net-net accounting methods selection. In order to avoid developed countries taking use of the accounting loopholes of LULUCF to decrease their emission reduction pressure, the LULUCF data submitted by main developed counties in Annex I including EU27, Canada, Japan, Russia and so on, were collected in this paper. According to the analysis of these data, the loopholes might influence the accounting results of LULUCF. The results show that the uncertainty of harvest wood product was excessive; carbon sink produced by LULUCF activities would increase averagely 30% at least without force majeure; reference level threshold value of carbon sink should be set at a higher level; net-net accounting method might be more suitable for LULUCF in post-Kyoto.

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