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關(guān)鍵詞: LULUCF, 溫室氣體源/匯, 《京都議定書》, 履約, LULUCF, GHG emissions/removals, Kyoto Protocol, compliance

Abstract: Based on the updated 1990-2009 national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories including Kyoto Protocol (KP) LULUCF-relevant data submitted by Annex I parties in 2011, GHG removals/emissions in LULUCF sector and LULUCF activities in the first two years (2008-2009) of the first commitment period of the KP were analyzed, and the cap for forest management activities in Decision 16/CMP.1 was retrospected. LULUCF sector of Annex I parties represents a net GHG removal on the whole, which increased by 65.9% from 1990 to 2009, with a significant inter-annual fluctuation. The net GHG removals of LULUCF sector in Annex I parties accounts for 7.41% of the total GHG emissions without LULUCF in 1990 and 13.68% in 2009. In 2008-2009, KP parties can claim a credit of 238 million ton CO2 equivalent per year from eligible KP LULUCF activities mainly from forest management (FM). The total net GHG removal of those KP parties accounts for 1.91% of the total GHG emissions in the base year without LULUCF. This means that about 45% of emission reduction committed by these parties can be offset by the net GHG removals of LULUCF activities. Analysis also indicates that the FM cap as contained in Decision 16/CMO.1 was overestimated by 59%, which allows some parties able to excessively use FM for their KP compliance, such as Russia, Italy and Japan. This may provide a caution to on-going negotiation of accounting rule for FM in the second commitment period.