用經(jīng)濟(jì)-氣候模型模擬糧食單產(chǎn)的方法探討

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2011, Vol. 7 ?? Issue (5): 330-335.

用經(jīng)濟(jì)-氣候模型模擬糧食單產(chǎn)的方法探討

符琳¹,李維京²,張培群³,宋艷玲³

1.
2. 中國氣象局國家氣候中心
3. 國家氣候中心

收稿日期:2011-04-19 修回日期:2011-06-03 出版日期:2011-09-30 發(fā)布日期:2011-09-30
通訊作者: 符琳 E-mail:fulin08@163.com

Improvement of Economy-Climate Model and Its Application in Assessing the Grain Yield of Jilin Province

Lin Fu, , ,

Received:2011-04-19 Revised:2011-06-03 Online:2011-09-30 Published:2011-09-30
Contact: Lin Fu E-mail:fulin08@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 綜合考慮作物生育期內(nèi)逐旬光、溫、水氣候條件的影響，通過SVD和EOF方法構(gòu)建一個(gè)綜合氣候因子，結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)資料建立吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)-氣候模型，并應(yīng)用于吉林省糧食單產(chǎn)的模擬和年景評估。結(jié)果表明：綜合氣候因子對吉林省糧食單產(chǎn)的影響主要為正效應(yīng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)-氣候模型能對吉林省糧食單產(chǎn)和年景進(jìn)行較好的評估。

關(guān)鍵詞: 經(jīng)濟(jì)-氣候模型, 吉林省, 糧食單產(chǎn), 年景評估, economy-climate model, Jilin Province, grain yield, assessment of annual harvest pattern

Abstract: Methods of SVD and EOF were used to construct an integrated climate factor with dekad mean temperature, dekad total sunshine and precipitation from April to September; then an economy-climate model was built in combination with economic data to assess the grain yield condition of Jilin Province. The results show that the effect of integrated climate factor on grain yield was positive, and good evaluation was received in the simulation of grain yields and the assessment of annual harvest patterns using the economy-climate model.

符琳李維京張培群宋艷玲. 用經(jīng)濟(jì)-氣候模型模擬糧食單產(chǎn)的方法探討[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2011, 7(5): 330-335.

Lin Fu. Improvement of Economy-Climate Model and Its Application in Assessing the Grain Yield of Jilin Province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2011, 7(5): 330-335.

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