碳排放許可的強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展——基于30省區(qū)CGE模型的分析

氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (1): 60-67.

碳排放許可的強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展——基于30省區(qū)CGE模型的分析

袁永娜¹,石敏俊¹,李娜²,周晟呂¹,²

1. 中國科學(xué)院研究生院
2.

收稿日期:2011-05-27 修回日期:2011-10-26 出版日期:2012-01-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-01-30
通訊作者: 石敏俊 E-mail:mjshi1964@gmail.com
基金資助:
國家自然科學(xué)基金委管理學(xué)部應(yīng)急研究項(xiàng)目“應(yīng)對氣候變化的節(jié)能減排政策研究”;國家自然科學(xué)基金委創(chuàng)新群體研究項(xiàng)目“數(shù)據(jù)挖掘與智能知識管理：理論與應(yīng)用研究”

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emission Permits and China Regional Development—Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable Equilibrium Model Analysis

Received:2011-05-27 Revised:2011-10-26 Online:2012-01-30 Published:2012-01-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于30省區(qū)CGE模型，模擬分析了碳排放許可的強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對我國區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的影響。結(jié)果表明：按行業(yè)屬性設(shè)定強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)會加劇區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡狀況；按區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平設(shè)定強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，對區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的影響較小，但會對高排放行業(yè)造成較大的沖擊。中央政府基于強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，參考區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平，將碳排放許可分配到各個省份，然后各個省份再參考行業(yè)特點(diǎn)將碳排放許可分配給機(jī)制覆蓋行業(yè)的實(shí)體或排放源，這樣的兩階段分配結(jié)構(gòu)是較為現(xiàn)實(shí)的、具有可操作性的政策選擇。

關(guān)鍵詞: 碳排放許可, 強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn), 區(qū)域平衡發(fā)展, 30省區(qū)可計(jì)算一般均衡模型（CGE模型）, carbon emission permit, intensity allocation criteria, regional balance development, 30-province/autonomous computable equilibrium model

Abstract: The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emission permits and its influence on China誷 regional development were analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region CGE model. Simulation results show that: industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account, deepens the unbalanced development of regional economy; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial attributes into account, exerts little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon-emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emission permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emission permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial attributes, is a feasible and operable choice.

袁永娜石敏俊李娜周晟呂. 碳排放許可的強(qiáng)度分配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展——基于30省區(qū)CGE模型的分析[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2012, 8(1): 60-67.

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